Israeli hostages killed by Hamas highlight Netanyahu’s need to switch from coercion to negotiation

Perhaps more importantly, the end of hostilities also means the start of governing and rebuilding Gaza, and neither the Israeli government nor the international community appear to be ready for that. What or who fills the vacuum during this interim period will go a long way towards determining whether Israel’s military response has made the country any safer in the short term.

After so many Gazans have been killed and their homes destroyed, the generational enmity for Israel among Gazans means that, short of any permanent two-state solution being implemented, there will be no shortage of willing recruits for radical Islamist groups in Gaza, and Israel is unlikely to be any safer in the long term.

Israel has already promised a post-Munich style reckoning for all those directly involved in the planning and execution of the October 7 attack, and there is little doubt they will follow through on this promise – no matter how long it takes. But the best chance of recovering as many hostages as possible lays in securing a negotiated resolution to the conflict as quickly as possible.

Any negotiated outcome will, of course, require painful concessions from Israel. There will also be a feeling among some in Israel that Hamas has been rewarded for its perfidy, and a lingering suspicion if all hostages aren’t accounted for that Hamas has retained some as insurance for the future. And it is unlikely that Netanyahu’s coalition government could survive such a deal being negotiated. But true leadership is about making painful decisions in the best interests of the country one governs, including having the wisdom to know when to switch from coercion to negotiation.

Dr Rodger Shanahan is a Middle East analyst. As an army officer, his operational experience included Lebanon, Syria and Afghanistan. He is the author of Islamic State in Australia.

The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.