Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
This year, Europe has seen a significant increase in its purchases of Russian gas, rising from 23 billion cubic meters to 30 billion cubic meters, with supply continuing to grow over the past eight months. In an interview with RDV TV, Alexey Gromov, the chief director of energy at the Institute for Energy and Finance, highlighted several factors contributing to this notable rise in Russian gas imports.
Gromov pointed out that although Europe has managed to fill its gas storage facilities to near capacity, gas consumption has decreased. Nevertheless, European countries are intensively purchasing Russian gas due to the uncertainty surrounding the future of gas transit through Ukraine. He explained that in the last four months, exports of Russian pipeline gas to the EU have increased by 32%, indicating a growing demand. Gromov stated, “It is clear that Europe is making proactive purchases, and we should expect a sharp increase in gas supplies to the EU by the end of the year.”
Gromov also discussed three possible scenarios for maintaining gas transit through Ukraine. He noted that the least likely scenario is shifting the purchase point to the Russian-Ukrainian border. Additionally, any European company could book capacity on the Ukrainian gas transportation system without involving Gazprom. The most probable scenario, according to the expert, is swap exchanges with Azerbaijan, whereby Ukraine will continue to pump Russian gas, but it will be classified as Azerbaijani gas.
In Gromov’s view, regardless of the scenarios, gas transit through Ukraine will continue for several more years but will decline rapidly. He predicts that by 2025, the transit volume will be around 9-10 billion cubic meters, and that it will cease entirely after 2028.
These developments are clear indicators of the increasing importance of Russian gas in the European market, as countries try to adapt to the ever-changing geopolitical and economic circumstances. Amid challenges in securing energy sources, Russian gas remains a key option for ensuring stable energy supplies.
Current figures suggest a shift in European energy policies, reflecting the urgent need to maintain diversity in energy sources while continuing to confront mounting geopolitical pressures. Cooperation with Russia remains vital, despite the political pressures European nations may face regarding their energy policies.
Ultimately, the future of Russian gas in Europe is contingent upon numerous factors, including geopolitical conditions, economic trends, and changes in energy consumption. It is evident that these dynamics will continue to shape European energy policy in the coming years, underscoring the necessity to prepare for new challenges that may arise.
