Macron came with an offer to the Russians to end the war.. Does Moscow want to negotiate with America or Europe?
While fighting continues on Ukrainian soil between the Russian and Ukrainian armies, intelligence and political messages and indicators appear indicating the desire of the parties to the conflict to resort to the path of calm and negotiation to end the war that has been going on for months.
US intelligence suggested that the fighting in Ukraine would decrease in the coming months. This came in the words of Director of Intelligence Avril Haines yesterday, Saturday, during her participation in the Reagan National Defense Forum in California, western America, and she based her weight on data, including what the coming winter will impose from a different environment for the conflict.
Commenting on the US intelligence report, Larry Korb, former US assistant secretary of defense and senior researcher at the Center for American Progress, said the information you provided was reliable.
He added to the “Beyond the News” program that it will be difficult for the Russian and Ukrainian sides to achieve military gains in light of the harsh and difficult winter, and this will allow a margin for political negotiations between them.
However, Ambassador Andrei Baklanov, Vice President of the Association of Russian Diplomats, questioned the US intelligence reports and said that they are weak and limited, and that the Russian army is ready to fight despite the difficult weather conditions.
Russian terms for negotiation
Observers linked the US intelligence report to French President Emmanuel Macron’s call to grant Moscow security guarantees if it returned to negotiations, a call that came after Macron’s visit to the United States of America, whose president, Joe Biden, had acknowledged his openness to the principle of holding talks with his Russian counterpart. Vladimir Putin to end the war.
Macron said his country would continue to support Ukraine militarily and would provide Kyiv with more weapons. He stressed that this support would not include any military equipment that would enable Ukraine to attack Russian lands, thus involving France in the conflict.
The former US Assistant Secretary of Defense confirmed the existence of coordination between Paris and Washington regarding Ukraine, and the evidence for this is that the French President issued his statements after his meeting with his American counterpart in Washington.
Macron’s statements send a message that the United States is ready to support the security guarantees that will be provided to Russia, which Korb summarized in one point, which is that Ukraine will not join NATO in the foreseeable future, and he said that the United States supports Kyiv with more than 100 billion dollars and for reasons Politics can not put pressure on Ukraine.
And in the event that Moscow rejects what France is offering, then the countries supporting Ukraine – the American guest continues – will provide it with the necessary needs in order to win the war, and if Kyiv regains Kherson, its destination may be an attempt to restore the Crimea peninsula, which Russia took control of in 2014.
From the point of view of the Russians, the negotiation is with the Americans, who stand and manage what is happening in Ukraine, and not with Macron or the Europeans, as Ambassador Baklanov says, who specified in his interview with the “Behind the News” program 3 Russian conditions for negotiating with the West.
He explained that the conditions are to dismantle and prosecute the “Nazi regime” in Ukraine, disarm the Ukrainian army, and thirdly solve all humanitarian problems and determine the status of the current Ukrainian borders.
Ambassador Baklanov confirmed that 4 provinces have become Russian, and that Moscow will try to reach full recognition of what he considered Russia’s rights over these regions.