Across these battlefields, a pattern is emerging. In several wars, the side expected to collapse early has continued to resist, often beyond military predictions. These conflicts show how smaller forces, fragmented groups or weaker states are sustaining prolonged resistance against stronger opponents.
“In today’s era, wars have become so sudden and unpredictable that it is very difficult to predict when any war will end and how long it will last,” Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said late last year. Singh also reiterated the need for armed forces to be prepared for conflicts lasting “even for five years.”
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The ongoing war involving Iran, the United States and Israel has further fortified this shift. The war began on February 28, with coordinated US–Israel strikes targeting Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. The scale of the attack suggested a quick outcome. Instead, Iran continued retaliation and extended the conflict – reflecting a broader trend.
Military experts and officials have increasingly acknowledged this change. In 2024, military historian Lawrence Freedman said war planners continue to operate under a “short war fallacy,” adding that “long and costly conflicts are demonstrably the norm.”
Iran at the Centre: Expectation vs Reality
The opening phase of the Iran conflict showed a clear imbalance. The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes aimed at weakening Iran’s military capacity, targeting infrastructure, leadership and strategic assets in what was expected to be a decisive operation.
Iran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and US-linked assets across the region. The conflict expanded to multiple countries in the Middle East through allied networks, increasing its scale beyond a direct confrontation. The use of missiles, drones and proxy groups reflects a wider reliance on asymmetric tactics that allow weaker or pressured actors to offset conventional military disadvantages.
Casualty estimates indicate thousands of deaths across countries, with significant damage to infrastructure. The conflict also disrupted regional stability and trade routes, adding economic impact beyond the battlefield. Despite sustained airstrikes and pressure, Iran did not collapse. The conflict moved into a prolonged phase, with a temporary ceasefire failing to produce a decisive outcome.
This reflects a broader assessment made by researchers. At a 2024 policy discussion hosted by the University of Chicago Harris School, experts said modern wars are “so long and so hard to end,” pointing to the growing complexity of conflict resolution.
They noted that conflicts today involve multiple actors, including state and non-state groups, external backers and shifting alliances, making negotiations more difficult. Economic interests, territorial control and political survival have also reduced incentives for early settlement.
Ukraine War: A Prolonged Defence
The war in Ukraine reflects the same pattern over a longer period. Russia entered the conflict in 2022 with a larger military, but the war has continued for years without a clear resolution.
Data cited in global conflict reports shows that tens of thousands of people were killed in 2025 alone, with civilian casualties rising due to continued attacks on urban areas. Ukraine has relied on drones, air defence systems and external support to sustain its position, adapting its strategy over time.
Military leadership has also recognised this shift. Speaking at the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi in March 2026, Navy Chief Admiral Dinesh Kumar Tripathi said “recent global conflicts have challenged the long-held assumption that wars would be short and decisive.”
“There is obviously a thought process that the post-Cold War peace dividend has certainly ended. Therefore, countries must be ready for their own national security, and that requires building their own defence industrial complexes,” Admiral Tripathi said.
The gap between expectation and reality has been acknowledged at the operational level as well. Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi said, “When Russia went in for war, we thought it would be over in just 10 days.”
The Ukraine war has become a reference point for how modern conflicts evolve into extended engagements.
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Vietnam War: A Historical Precedent
The pattern is not entirelynew. The Vietnam War, which lasted from 1955 to 1975, showed how a weaker force could outlast a stronger military over a prolonged period.
The United States entered the war with clear military superiority, including advanced air power and large troop deployments. Early expectations suggested a limited conflict. Instead, the war extended for nearly two decades.
North Vietnamese forces and the Viet Cong relied on guerrilla tactics, local terrain and decentralised operations. Despite sustained bombing campaigns and military pressure, they continued resistance.
The United States withdrew in 1973, and Saigon fell in 1975. The conflict remains one of the clearest examples of a stronger power failing to secure a quick or decisive outcome.
Other Conflicts Reinforce the Pattern
The trend is visible in other regions as well.
In Gaza, the war has turned into prolonged urban fighting with repeated ground operations and airstrikes. Civilian casualties have crossed tens of thousands, and large sections of the population have been displaced. Despite sustained military pressure and damage to infrastructure, armed groups have continued to operate through tunnel networks and dense urban terrain, extending the duration of the conflict.
In Sudan, the civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has led to widespread destruction across cities such as Khartoum and Omdurman. The conflict has caused thousands of deaths and forced millions to flee their homes. Despite limited central coordination and heavy losses, both sides have continued to hold territory and launch attacks, prolonging the war.
In Myanmar, resistance groups formed after the 2021 military coup have expanded into a broad coalition of local militias and ethnic armed organisations. These groups have captured territory in border regions and sustained attacks on military positions. Despite limited resources, they have maintained pressure on the military government, turning the conflict into a prolonged and decentralised war.
Across these conflicts, the expected imbalance in strength has not led to quick resolution.
The Cost of Prolonged Wars
The extension of conflicts has increased the overall human and economic cost. Longer wars have led to higher civilian casualties, repeated displacement and sustained damage to infrastructure.
Global conflict data shows that more than 240,000 people were killed in wars in 2025, with major conflicts continuing without resolution. Prolonged fighting has also disrupted trade, energy supply and economic activity across regions.
The longer a conflict continues, the wider its impact extends beyond the battlefield.
A Shift Towards Endurance
The Iran conflict, along with Ukraine and others, shows that military advantage is not translating into quick victories. Instead, the ability to sustain operations, adapt strategies and absorb losses is shaping how wars continue.
“In all these wars, we have seen what is affecting the David and Goliath system. If you have low-cost and high technology, you will be able to defeat even a superior adversary. We need this kind of application. Protection is a new thing because you should be able to take an onslaught of the enemy barrage and thereafter you should be able to take action required at that moment. So, these three factors are the most when we talk about war. Now, all this is only feasible because you will find these connected by communication and cyber,” General Upendra Dwivedi said.
This shift is visible in how conflicts are now fought. Weaker or pressured actors are relying on drones, missiles, cyber capabilities and decentralised networks to extend resistance. These methods reduce dependence on conventional strength and allow continued operations even after heavy losses.
Stronger militaries are also facing limits in achieving rapid outcomes. Large-scale strikes and early offensives have not consistently led to decisive results. Instead, conflicts are moving into extended phases where control shifts slowly and outcomes remain uncertain.
