The Trump administration has informed Belarus’s exiled opposition that efforts to secure the release of more political prisoners from President Alexander Lukashenko have been delayed, according to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Her remarks represent the first public acknowledgment of a slowdown in negotiations led by President Donald Trump’s envoy, John Coale.
These talks have so far resulted in the release of over 400 prisoners. However, human rights group Viasna reports that nearly 870 individuals remain incarcerated, with at least 170 deemed “particularly vulnerable” due to age, illness, or harsh detention conditions.
In an interview, Tsikhanouskaya told Reuters that the U.S. side conveyed that “the next releases were postponed for a while,” though she could not disclose the specific reason.
“Knowing the reason, it doesn’t worry me. Of course, we want more people to be released as soon as possible, and any delay, it ruins health for many of them,” she stated in English. “But it’s not the end of the process.”
She highlighted optimistic comments from Coale, who posted on X on June 3: “We are not finished. Keep hope alive!”
Reuters sought comment from both Coale and Lukashenko’s office but received no response.
The U.S. decision to engage in talks with Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, marked a significant shift from previous Western policy. For years, Lukashenko had been treated as an international pariah, facing U.S. and EU sanctions over his human rights record and support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Tsikhanouskaya, whom Western governments consider the legitimate winner of the disputed 2020 election claimed by Lukashenko, has welcomed the U.S. engagement as a crucial humanitarian initiative. However, she has cautioned against conferring legitimacy on the veteran authoritarian ruler.
She has openly expressed discomfort with Donald Trump’s public praise of Lukashenko, whom he has called “the Highly Respected President of Belarus,” yet acknowledges the effectiveness of the U.S. approach.
“Neither President Trump nor those around him are naive; they understand who they are dealing with, and they can make some tactical moves to free people,” she said.
In a major policy change, the U.S. announced in December that it was lifting sanctions on potash fertilizer from Belarus, a leading global producer, as a reward for the prisoner releases.
However, this move has not yet translated into a significant revenue boost for Lukashenko, as EU sanctions remain in place. This forces Belarus to route its exports through Russia rather than the more efficient route via Lithuania’s port of Klaipeda.
Lithuania stated last month that the U.S. was pressuring it to restore Belarusian access to Klaipeda, but Vilnius would not consider this while EU sanctions are in effect until February 2027.
Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat and independent political analyst based in Warsaw, suggested that Lukashenko’s frustration with the U.S.’s inability to bring European partners on board was the likely cause for the delay in prisoner talks.
“Probably the Americans delivered a promise (to Lukashenko) that they could not fulfil,” he said in a telephone interview.
“The American sanctions have never been the biggest problem for the regime in Minsk. The toughest sanctions are the European ones.”
Coale, 79, was appointed by Donald Trump last year to lead negotiations with Lukashenko. He has cultivated a relationship with the former collective farm boss through extensive talks and vodka-drinking sessions, reportedly discreetly emptying his glass to remain sober.
Among the hundreds of prisoners freed are Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski and prominent opposition figures, including Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski.
On April 28, Coale told Reuters he anticipated more prisoner releases within the following month. Six weeks later, this has yet to occur.
On June 4, Coale refuted an assertion on X by Valery Tsepkalo, a Belarusian opposition politician and former ambassador to the U.S., who claimed Lukashenko had refused to meet him in May.
The stalling of talks coincides with rising tensions between Lukashenko and the West in recent weeks.
Belarus has conducted joint nuclear exercises with Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has expressed his belief that Moscow is attempting to draw Belarus deeper into the conflict.
Arrests of Lukashenko critics have continued, despite Coale stating that the U.S. had insisted this must cease.
Tsikhanouskaya noted that people are being arrested “every day,” but accurate statistics are scarce as relatives fear reprisals from authorities.
Rights group Viasna has documented at least 50 politically motivated prison sentences since December. Last month alone, it added 32 names to its list of political prisoners.
Tsikhanouskaya told Reuters that Lukashenko is operating a “revolving door” system, replacing old prisoners with new ones to maintain his bargaining power.
While commending Coale for a “fantastic job,” she shared her concern that Lukashenko was attempting to manipulate the situation.
“He wants to get a Lamborghini for the price of a bicycle. Take a lot while giving a little,” she said.
“And now if the Americans and the Europeans don’t maintain a principled position, we will repeat the same cycle again: Lukashenko will deceive, the sanctions will be removed, and the regime will still be there, without systemic changes.”
