Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Sinners”
Oscars Best Original Song Commentary (Updated March 10, 2026): All signs are pointing to “Golden” from Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” running away with best original song.
Making history as the first K-pop song nominated for an Oscar, “Golden” is performed by Huntr/x — members EJAE, Audrey Nuna and Rei Ami — and written by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, DO, 24 and Teddy Park. The film is Netflix’s most popular movie of all time, dominating the No. 1 spot for weeks, while three of its songs — “Golden,” “Your Idol” and “Soda Pop” — were mainstays on the Billboard Hot 100. The song also earned a Grammy nomination for Song of the Year.
So how could it lose?
Still, Variety’s anonymous Oscar ballots revealed a notable pocket of support for “I Lied to You” from “Sinners,” written by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson. This race could be closer than anticipated. While we project a “Golden” victory, an upset here could signal a bigger night ahead for Ryan Coogler’s record-breaking film.
As for 16-time nominee Diane Warren, she’ll likely have to wait another year for her long-coveted competitive Oscar.
Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
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