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Greens leader Adam Bandt is set to lose his seat of Melbourne to the Labor Party – short of a miracle occurring.

Preferences are flowing against Bandt strongly among postal votes and he’s still 2,800 votes behind the Labor candidate as of 1.45pm Monday.

It’s hard to see where he’ll pick up anywhere near enough extra votes to make up the difference.

But there are absentee votes get to be counted, which could help him as the sitting MP.

The biggest reason Bandt looks gone is because the Liberal how to vote card preferences Labor ahead of the Greens leader at this election, increasing the degree of difficulty for him to win dramatically.

Liberal Party postals are usually quite high – all those affluent types on holidays who vote via the post before flying abroad – and this time they are therefore helping Labor for a change.

It’s a case of the major parties ganging up to rid the parliament of one of the biggest thorns in both parties’ sides.

There are 16 seats still notionally in doubt in the 150 seat House of Representatives.

Currently the Labor Party has won 85 seats, remembering a majority requires just 76 seats.

The Coalition is languishing on just 39 seats while there are 10 crossbench MPs certain of winning.

Here are the seats other than Melbourne and what the state of play is:

Bean in the ACT: the incumbent Labor MP David Smith is probably far enough in front of independent challenger Jessica Price to win his way back into the parliament.

Bendigo: this regional Victorian seat is a tight race with the Labor incumbent Lisa Chesters narrowly in front by around 600 votes as postal counting continues. The Nats were bullish about their chances in Bendigo and have had a massive swing to them. Postals are favouring the Nats so the Labor lead keeps narrowing but it’s too close to call.

Bradfield on Sydney’s north shore is the last non-teal seat Liberals hold in that neck of the woods, but the Liberal candidate hoping to take over from outgoing MP Paul Fletcher is behind as postal votes get counted.

The teal candidate, Nicole Boele, who hit the headlines during the campiagn for all the wrong reasons is in front by around 900 votes with the contest narrowing. Too close to call.

Bullwinkel is a new seat created in WA on the outskirts of Perth. It was a notional Labor seat by around 3.3 percent but its candidate is in a virtual dead heat right now with Liberal candidate Matt Moran (not the celebrity chef).

It was a remarkable performance by Moran to get this close, and he’s probably a narrow favourite with postal counting continuing given that he only trails by 85 votes. But there aren’t that many postals to count.

Calwell is a traditionally safe Labor seat and will be held by the government unless the independent challenger can rise high enough in the preference flow to get past the Liberal candidate and benefit from their preferences.

Right now it looks more likely Labor hangs on.

Flinders in Victoria is held by Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie and she is ahead of the Labor challenger by 3,000 votes. She will win.

Franklin: Labor MP and minuster Julie Collins needs to cross her fingers that preferences don’t bring her undone in what is a three cornered contest but it’s now very unlikely and she should hang on to win.

Fremantle: incumbent Labor MP Josh Wilson is in the fight of his political life to stave off independent challenger Kate Hulett. He’s just under 200 votes behind in the count but closing with postal votes and will probably overtake her. Too close to call.

Goldstein looks like being the most extraordinary showdown anywhere across the nation. Teal MP Zoe Daniel won the seat off of Liberal MP Tim Wilson back in 2022.

Wilson re-contested it this time around and looked done on Saturday night as Daniel claimed victory before having to walk back her remarks the following day.

Wilson was 1800 votes behind but now only trails by 95 votes and is very likely to see the trend that’s brought him back into contention continue.

Kooyong sees Teal MP Monique Ryan well out in from of Liberal challenger Amelia Hamer, by just under 2,000 votes.

The margin is coming down dramatically as postal votes get counted and Liberals think Hamer is still a chance but might run out of postals before overcoming the Teal.

Longman is a Liberal held seat in Brisbane that Labor is narrowly in front in as counting continues. The margin is just over 300 votes and the lead has been bouncing back and forth. Too close to call.

Menzies in Melbourne is one of the last Liberal held metropolitan seats. Incumbent Keith Wolahan looked gone on election night but is clawing closer as postals get counted. He’s currently about 1900 behind which is likely too far back to win, but Liberals aren’t giving up just yet.

Monash is a Melbourne electorate held by veteran former Liberal Russell Broadbent. He lost preselection and contested the seat as an independent. Preference flows are all important here. If it’s a fight against the Labor Party the new Liberal candidate Mary Aldred will win. Broadbent won’t, but his preferences could deliver the seat to another independent also in the mix.

At the moment the Liberals are in front.

Ryan was won off the Liberals at the last election. It’s a seat previously held by former Liberal MP Andrew Lamming. Liberals hoped to win it back but it looks like the Greens will hang on, pending something dramatic happening with postal votes.

Wills is a Labor held seat the Greens had hoped to pick up but the incumbent MP is more than 1800 votes in front and will hold on