In response to calls for CSIRO to model nuclear’s average capacity factor – the ratio of how long a generator is operational compared to sitting idle – in line with the US average of 93 per cent, CSIRO said it favoured the use of Australian evidence where available. The comparable experience of Australia’s baseload coal-fired generation fleet was 59 per cent, it said.
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The Albanese government said the CSIRO’s closely watched GenCost report confirmed its plan for the energy transition was the “right plan for Australian homes and businesses”.
As Australia’s coal-fired power stations near the end of their lives, the government is aiming to deliver a mostly renewable grid, backed up by thousands of kilometres of extra transmission lines, storage assets such as batteries and pumped hydroelectric dams to stash clean energy for when it’s not sunny or windy, and a critical fleet of gas-fired power stations on standby.
“The latest GenCost confirms what our energy experts have been saying for a long time: the most affordable path to deliver reliable energy in future is with new renewable generation and storage, firmed by gas and pumped hydro,” Energy Minister Chris Bowen said.
Still, the report adds to deepening concerns about the cost of building a cleaner and bigger electricity grid, and the risk that consumers may be hit with higher bills to pay for it.
Installation costs, which typically account for about a third of a project’s overall cost, are rising for all energy technologies, CSIRO said. The report warns of installation cost increases of six per cent to 20 per cent by 2050, due to construction wage rises and the higher costs of materials, such as cement.
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Gas turbines are in tight supply across the world, keeping prices elevated, the report says. It also adds to worries about the escalating cost of building Australia’s first offshore wind farms, which the governments are hoping can bring vast amounts of clean power to homes and businesses within the next decade.
However, the offshore wind sector has been reeling from rising interest rates, soaring equipment costs and supply chain disruptions, forcing the cancellation of projects around the world.
Now, GenCost warns that the first Australian offshore wind farm would incur a first-of-a-kind cost premium (the added cost needed to develop the new technology locally) of 63 per cent.
CSIRO’s director of energy, Dietmar Tourbier, said the GenCost represented Australia’s most comprehensive cost projections that would feed directly into system modelling and investment planning to support “evidence-based decisions across the sector”.
“By drawing on expert input from across the electricity sector, GenCost reinforces CSIRO’s role as a neutral source of scientific insight to help guide Australia’s energy transition,” he said.
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