Julian Lee
Russia’s war chest is being hammered by the double-whammy of a slump in oil shipments and a continuing decline in prices, sending the value of crude exports to the lowest since January 2023.
Four-week average crude flows fell in the period to December 14, driven by the biggest week-on-week slump in flows since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Offloading cargoes is proving even more of a challenge, with crude at sea jumping 40 per cent since the end of August and at least 20 cargoes loaded at the country’s western ports in September and October still undelivered.
Numerous tankers have disappeared from tracking systems in the Riau archipelago, north-east of Singapore, a favoured location for transferring sanctioned Iranian barrels between vessels that’s growing in popularity among carriers of Moscow’s crude. Tracks suggest that at least six Russian cargo switches have taken place there since November, with another six fully laden tankers disappearing in the area so far this month.
The slide in Moscow’s revenues coincides with the US piling the diplomatic pressure on Ukraine and its European allies to strike a peace deal, even as the Kremlin keeps up its bombardment of its neighbour’s gas and power infrastructure. Kyiv in turn continues to strike Russia’s oil assets, extending its attacks to production platforms in the Caspian Sea, and hitting more tankers hauling the country’s oil.
Moscow shipped 3.61 million barrels a day in the four weeks to December 14, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down by about 70,000 from the period to December 7, driven by a 1.24 million barrel a day decline in weekly shipments.
An 11th straight drop in crude prices has added to Moscow’s difficulties. Urals is down by about $US20 a barrel, or more than one-third, since its recent peak in mid-July, dropping to the lowest since the war began. Pacific-loading ESPO has fared a little better, losing about 22 per cent of its value over the same period. But even here, sanctions are weighing on demand, allowing at least one Chinese buyer to snap up a cargo at what traders say was the steepest discount this year.
Crude shipments
A total of 27 tankers loaded 20.98 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to December 14, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down sharply from 29.65 million barrels on 38 ships the previous week.
On a daily average basis, shipments in the week to December 14 slumped to 3 million barrels a day, down by about 1.24 million barrels a day from the previous week, the biggest week-on-week drop since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Separately, one cargo of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade was shipped from Novorossiysk during the week.
The slump in flows was driven by a sharp drop in shipments from the Baltic port of Primorsk.
There is now more crude on tankers yet to show a final destination than the combined amount on ships signalling that they are heading to China, India or Turkey.
Export value
On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports fell to $US1.09 billion ($1.65 billion) a week in the 28 days to December 14, with the impact of the lower export quantities magnified by the 11th straight drop in average prices.
Using this measure, the export prices of Russia’s Urals from the Baltic fell by about $US1.10 a barrel to $US40.07, while prices for Black Sea cargoes were down by $US0.90 a barrel to $US37.41. The price of Pacific ESPO crude dropped by $US1.40 to average $US50.97 a barrel. Delivered prices in India also fell, down by $US0.70 to $US56.99 a barrel, another new low for the period since March 2023. All prices are according to numbers from Argus Media.
On a weekly basis, the value of exports averaged about $US883 million in the 7 days to December 14, down by 30 per cent from the period to December 7, with prices and quantities both down week-on-week. The weekly export value was the lowest in three years.
No final destination
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, slipped to 3.36 million barrels a day in the 28 days to December 14, down from a revised 3.41 million in the period to December 7.
While the amount of Russian crude heading to both China and India appears to be falling sharply, that’s mostly being offset by growing quantities on vessels yet to show a final destination, allowing for much of that pattern to be reversed. Tankers are increasingly showing no final destination until they are well across the Arabian Sea, while some never show a final calling point, even after mooring to discharge.
Vessels are also spending longer at sea, with several tankers diverting from initial destinations on the west coast of India or in Turkey. They are also getting held up waiting to discharge at Chinese ports.
There is now more crude on tankers yet to show a final destination than the combined amount on ships signalling that they are heading to China, India or Turkey.
Flows on tankers signalling Chinese ports stood at 840,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to December 14, down from 920,000 for the period to December 7. The amount destined for India fell to 800,000 barrels a day from a revised 980,000 barrels a day in the period to December 7. But there is the equivalent of 1.72 million barrels a day on vessels yet to show a final destination.
Of that, about 1.62 million barrels a day is on ships from Russia’s western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 100,000 barrels a day is on tankers yet to signal a destination.
In the past, those cargoes have almost all ended up in India or China, but tougher US sanctions may keep that oil on the water unless, or until, workarounds can be found by the Russian sellers.
Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to December 14 edged down to about 230,000 barrels a day from a revised 260,000 barrels a day in the period to December 7. Shipments to Syria remained at zero. Tankers hauling Russian crude to the east Mediterranean nation rarely signal their destination and usually disappear from automated tracking systems when they’re south of Crete, making it difficult to estimate flows in advance of ships arriving off the port of Baniyas, where they can usually be picked up on satellite photos. The last Russian ship to discharge its cargo there left Murmansk at the end of September, arriving at the start of November.
Bloomberg
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