The first few weeks of 2026 have felt like a lifetime. They follow a year of unprecedented global events triggered by Donald Trump’s foreign policy that has rocked the world and the world order.
In less than a month, we have seen the US capture the president of Venezuela, threaten to bomb Iran, and vow to take over Nato partner Greenland, while briefly threatening sanctions on anyone who opposed that.
So what can the world expect as we move into the second year of Trump’s second term in office?
How far does his America First policy go? What does his Don-Roe doctrine mean for the direction of this new world?
And which crises and conflicts are likely to wreak havoc this year?
The most immediate concern is Trump’s determination to take over mineral-rich, strategically located Greenland, a semi-autonomous state of Nato-ally Denmark.
Although he has stepped back from military action, his desire to own the “piece of ice” remains undiminished. During his speech in Davos, he insulted Europe – and its leaders – criticising them on migration and energy, as well as defence. The alliance’s most powerful member is not playing nice.
Rose Gottemoeller, who served as Nato’s deputy secretary general during Trump’s first administration, told The Independent that Washington’s increasingly erratic signals, she said, raise doubts about its commitment to the US nuclear umbrella over Europe, which unofficial reports suggest includes around 100 warheads.
This, in turn, could trigger a new era of nuclear proliferation, something already being discussed in parts of Europe, including Germany.
Ukraine is at a critical juncture: there are desperate hopes that talks could bring an end to four years of Russia’s invasion of the country. Talks in Abu Dhabi between officials from US, Russia and Ukraine have so far proved inconclusive as there is one large elephant in the room – the row over territory.
Trump is arguably the only ally of Ukraine with enough power to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and agree to a ceasefire that is not simply a dressed-up surrender for Kyiv. But increasingly, it feels as though Trump does not care enough about the outcome for the Ukrainians.
His America First so-called isolationism, overtures to the Russian president over territory gains, public berating of Volodymyr Zelensky, and apparent indifference to Ukraine’s concerns that a peace deal could lead to renewed war with Russia in the future do not bode well.
It is also concerning that the US is sending signals that sovereignty does not matter, as seen in the justification of the US capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, and his hardline stance on Greenland.
“It is creating a precedent that countries like Russia… will take as affirmation,” General Sir Richard Barrons, the former Commander of Joint Forces Command, said at a recent Chatham House event.
