BAFTA night is when the Oscar race stops being polite and starts getting real.
The final BAFTA voting concluded on Tuesday, Feb. 17, at 10:00 a.m. PT, and now we wait to see what solidifies its standing in the race — or sparks a late-breaking surge that could reshape Oscar night. No awards body has a larger membership crossover with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences than BAFTA. The Oscars have nearly 11,000 voting members, while BAFTA’s international membership includes about 14,000 professionals across film, games and television, with branches in London, Cardiff, Glasgow and Los Angeles.
As of 2025, BAFTA reported that it had achieved key representation targets: 20% minority ethnic groups (19.85%), 12% Deaf, disabled, and neurodivergent members (12.84%), and 10% LGBTQ+ members (13.29%). Currently, 43% of BAFTA members identify as women (target: 50%), though 51% of members who joined since 2020 identify as women. In total, 10,000 BAFTA members vote in the annual awards recognizing achievements in film, games and television. For the 2025-26 awards season, there are 8,300 film awards voters. Some 782 new full members joined BAFTA this year.
In 2021, BAFTA made it mandatory for members to provide demographic details. At the time, 37.4% of members were women, 12.2% were from minority ethnic groups, 5.3% reported having a disability, and 9.7% identified as LGBTQ+.
Simply put, we have a race, and it is difficult to discern what could emerge as the victor, and what that could mean for the overall push toward the 98th Academy Awards.
At the 79th BAFTA Awards, Paul Thomas Anderson’s political satire leads the nominations with 14, just two short of the all-time record set by “Gandhi” (1982). Ryan Coogler’s historical horror follows with 13 nominations, which is the most ever for a film directed by a Black filmmaker in BAFTA history.
Courtesy of Agata Grzybowska
One of the most compelling questions is the split between outstanding British film, which recognizes significant creative involvement by British individuals, and the top category of Best Film, which all filmmakers qualify for. Since the category’s revival in 1992, only four films have won both awards: “Conclave” (2024), “1917” (2019), “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017) and “The King’s Speech” (2010).
The only film nominated in both categories this year is Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” which is also the highest-grossing BAFTA best film nominee in the United Kingdom and Ireland. That bodes well for the Shakespearean drama.
BAFTA rarely produces many “sweepers.” The record for most wins in BAFTA history is nine for George Roy Hill’s “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid” (1969), followed by eight for Roland Joffé’s “The Killing Fields” (1984). The nominees offer a mix that appeals to different voting blocs of the organization. Three of the top four most-nominated films — “One Battle After Another,” Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme” and “Sinners” — lean toward American sensibilities, which BAFTA has not typically favored outside a few notable exceptions, including “Nomadland” (2020), “La La Land” (2016), “Boyhood” (2014) and “Argo” (2012). Only two of those won the Oscar in the end.
The obvious question is whether those American-leaning titles split the vote of those members that are open to those themes and narratives.
When it comes to “Hamnet,” with an impressive 11 nominations, it speaks directly to a U.K.-leaning bloc. It’s the same bloc that propelled films such as “Conclave,” “The King’s Speech” and “Atonement” (2007) to victory. The box office story for “Hamnet” has been one of the season’s more compelling success narratives. Of its $80 million global gross, the film has surpassed “Sinners” to become the highest-grossing BAFTA Best Film nominee in the U.K. and Ireland. That could be helpful on Sunday night.
There is also an internationally minded contingent likely to embrace Joachim Trier’s Norwegian-language drama “Sentimental Value,” which earned eight nominations. This is a group that has never been shy about recognizing non-English-language films in a major way, as seen with past best film winners such as the German-language war film “All Quiet on the Western Front” from Edward Berger and the Spanish-language film “Roma” (2018) from Alfonso Cuarón.
When you dig into the acting races, your guesses are as good as anybody else.
MARTY SUPREME, Timothee Chalamet
Courtesy Everett Collection
In leading actor, Timothée Chalamet has an opportunity to cement his frontrunner status after winning the Critics Choice and Golden Globe prizes — neither membership of which overlap with Oscar voters. Awards strategists generally see the category as a three-way contest among Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio for “One Battle After Another” and Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon.”
Chalamet also appears to be the clearest path to rewarding “Marty Supreme,” which doesn’t look to be very competitive elsewhere. BAFTA has historically been less reluctant than the Oscars to reward younger actors, previously recognizing eventual Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne for “The Theory of Everything” (2014), Austin Butler for “Elvis” (2022) and a teenage Jamie Bell for “Billy Elliot” (2000). If “Marty Supreme” were to lose all 11 nominations, it would tie the record for most losses in BAFTA history alongside “Women in Love” (1969) and “Finding Neverland” (2004), which funny enough still went on to win one Oscar each on their respective nights for best actress (Glenda Jackson) and original score (Jan A.P. Kaczmarek). It’s especially striking given Safdie — director, co-producer, co-writer and co-editor — is the year’s most-nominated individual with four nominations.
A DiCaprio win is not out of the question. His film remains the presumptive favorite among many pundits and industry analysts. At the same time, outlets including Variety see the Oscar picture as a genuine toss-up based on reporting and conversations with voters. DiCaprio, who previously won a BAFTA for “The Revenant” (2015), has tied the record for most BAFTA best actor nominations with seven and is the youngest to reach that figure. His turn as stoner Bob Ford could help ignite a late campaign surge for the 51-year-old actor, particularly if “One Battle After Another” wins best film. It would be the kind of momentum shift reminiscent of Jean Dujardin’s rise for “The Artist” (2011), or last year’s best actress winner Mikey Madison for “Anora,” who won even as her film lost at BAFTA, then carried that lift through Oscar night after Demi Moore had been widely viewed as the safe pick for “The Substance.”
One additional statistical quirk is Chiwetel Ejiofor remains the last BAFTA best actor winner from an eventual best picture winner — “12 Years a Slave” (2013) — whose BAFTA win did not translate into an Oscar. In that year, Matthew McConaughey’s Oscar-winning performance in “Dallas Buyers Club” was ineligible at BAFTA because of its U.K. release date.
There is also a BAFTA contingent that leans towards veterans when the moment is right. When the chance arises to honor someone the industry deeply respects, BAFTA can seize it and shift the trajectory of a race. It was the only major group to foreshadow Anthony Hopkins’ upset for “The Father” (2020) over Chadwick Boseman for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Something similar could unfold for — coincidentally, for another Sony Pictures Classics title — “Blue Moon” and its star Ethan Hawke.
With only his second career BAFTA nomination after “Boyhood,” Hawke has been making the rounds at tastemaker events and remains widely admired by peers. The big hurdle to overcome is being the sole representation for his movie. If he were to win for his portrayal of Lorenz Hart as the sole nominee for the movie, he would be the first to do so since Walter Matthau for “Pete ’n’ Tillie” (1973). However, Matthau’s win effectively served as a combined recognition with his performance in “Charley Varrick,” which received did receive additional BAFTA nominations. It is also worth remembering that BAFTA ceremonies were held after the Oscars during that era. Even Colin Firth’s surprise BAFTA win for “A Single Man” (2009) over eventual Oscar winner Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart,” had the advantage of his co-star Julianne Moore also being nominated.
When you venture onto social media, much of the noise has centered on whether Rose Byrne can pull off an upset. It remains an incredibly tough sell to see such a outcome like that unfolding. Buckley leads the season in critics’ prizes and is anchored to a film with multiple BAFTA and Oscar nominations. Byrne is the only mention for her movie at both ceremonies. By that measure, it remains Buckley’s category to lose.
SENTIMENTAL VALUE, (aka AFFEKSJONSVERDI), Stellan Skarsgard
Courtesy Everett Collection
Supporting actor appears tailor-made for Stellan Skarsgård’s work as film director Gustav Borg in “Sentimental Value.” This cannot be overstated: If Skarsgård were to lose at BAFTA — on top of missing an Actor Awards (formerly SAG) nomination, a hurdle many of us have been willing to overlook — a BAFTA loss could prove fatal to his Oscar campaign.
If the door were to open, the beneficiary could be Puerto Rican veteran Benicio Del Toro for “One Battle After Another,” which a win would make him the first Latino actor to win more than one BAFTA award. Or Jacob Elordi’s performance as the Creature in “Frankenstein” could demonstrate his CCA win was no fluke, riding a wave of possible craft wins (production design, costumes and make up and hair) for Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix monster film. Or Paul Mescal’s work in “Hamnet,” shockingly omitted from the Oscar nominations, and could take a meaningful BAFTA victory lap to prove his movie has strength. Notably, the last winner in this category who did not receive an Oscar nomination in this category was Bill Nighy for “Love Actually” (2003), who triumphed over eventual Oscar winner Tim Robbins for “Mystic River.”
The supporting actress category is rapidly becoming a pick-your-own-winner race, and you could be right.
Absent is the critics’ darling Amy Madigan from “Weapons,” whi missed a vital nomination. The last person to win the Oscar in this category without BAFTA was Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018).
That leaves the pathway wide open for Teyana Taylor, who has been riding high on a memorable Golden Globes speech and the widespread assumption that she has controlled the race since the 83rd ceremony more than five weeks ago. A BAFTA win would, in many eyes, put the race to bed, maybe regardless of what happened at SAG. Remember, this is also the category that first signaled Angela Bassett would not win the Oscar for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (2022), when BAFTA awarded Kerry Condon for “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022), before Jamie Lee Curtis won SAG and ultimately the Oscar for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
With that in mind, attention has turned to “Sentimental Value” breakout Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, who doesn’t have to face vote-splitting from Oscar-nominated co-star Elle Fanning, who is not nominated at BAFTA. There’s also room for British performer Wunmi Mosaku for “Sinners,” who may also have her best shot of the season with a “home field” advantage. A victory for her would suggest “Sinners” is capable of breaking through above the line beyond original screenplay, which matters if it is to contend seriously for best picture at the Oscars.
Awards watchers have long assumed BAFTA would not be the organization to embrace Coogler’s vampire sensation, given its uneven history with Black films and artists (i.e., Denzel Washington has never received a BAFTA nomination). Yet “Sinners” has already exceeded expectations by landing 13 nominations, tying the fourth-most nominated BAFTA film ever and trailing only “One Battle After Another,” which scored 14 and ranks as the third-most nominated in BAFTA history.
But, that does not mean it will go home empty-handed.
“Sinners” remains on track to win original score for Ludwig Göransson, unless it is shut out in a manner reminiscent of “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which won a single BAFTA (editing) and then took seven Oscars right after.
If Coogler were to win original screenplay — something many are expecting could happen at the Academy Awards — that could be enough to sustain momentum going into these final weeks. And to go along with its historic year, a “Sinners” win in original screenplay would also make Coogler the first Black winner in that category. The Oscars have only had one with Jordan Peele for another horror flick, “Get Out” (2017).
One of the tightest contests of the season is cinematography, which has produced varied results across precursors. The same five nominees appeared at Critics Choice, the American Society of Cinematographers and the Oscars (a first in recent history). CCA went with “Train Dreams,” while ASC will not weigh in until Mar. 8, which is after Oscar voting closes. Its sister-guild, the British Society of Cinematographers, selected Michael Bauman’s work on “One Battle After Another,” but the BSC’s alignment with the Oscar winner since best picture expanded in 2009 has been inconsistent, matching in only six of the last 16 years: “The Brutalist” (2024), “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Mank” (2020), “1917,” “Roma” and “Blade Runner 2049” (2017). However, BSC and BAFTA match more often, aligning eight of the last 16 years, which could favor “One Battle After Another” on Sunday.
“Train Dreams,” meanwhile, is nominated only for cinematography at BAFTA. If it won, it would be the first since Roger Deakins’ camera work on “The Man Who Wasn’t There” (2001) to claim the prize as the sole nomination — and that film still lost the Oscar to “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.” More damaging is that “Train Dreams” was also passed over by the BSC, and no film in the last 16 years has won BAFTA cinematography without a BSC nomination.
That points us towards a historic win for Autumn Durald Arkapaw, who will make history as the first woman to win the category for her stunning work in “Sinners.”
Elsewhere on BAFTA night, “F1” is projected to sweep its three categories — editing, sound and, more surprisingly, special visual effects — potentially at the expense of “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” BAFTA has shown no reluctance to reward sequels, previously recognizing “Dune: Part Two” (2024), “Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022) and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (2015). Still, this third installment in James Cameron’s Pandora franchise, while a box office success, drew a more tepid response in the U.K., grossing $56 million compared with $93 million for the second film and $153 million for the original.
The BAFTA Film Awards take place Sunday, Feb. 22. The K-pop singing trio from “KPop Demon Hunters” is set to perform, despite the film’s ineligibility in animated feature. That prize is expected to go to Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” released under its U.K. title, “Zootropolis 2.”
By the time the trophies leave London, the question won’t be whether BAFTA mattered; it’ll be who survived it.
The final BAFTA predictions are below.
LONDON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 19: A general view of the BAFTA award trophy ahead of the EE BAFTA Film Awards 2023 at The Royal Festival Hall on February 19, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Klára Šimonová/Getty Images for BAFTA)
Getty Images for BAFTA
Best Film
Will Win: “Hamnet” — Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, Sam Mendes
Could Win: “One Battle After Another”
Outstanding British Film
Will Win: “Hamnet” — Chloé Zhao, Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Speilberg, Sam Mendes, Maggie O’Farrell
Could Win: “The Ballad of Wallis Island”
Director
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Could Win: Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Leading Actor
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leading Actress
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Could Win: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Could Win: Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Could Win: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Original Screenplay
Will Win: “Sinners” — Ryan Coogler
Could Win: “Sentimental Value”
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: “One Battle After Another” — Paul Thomas Anderson
Could Win: “Hamnet”
Casting
Will Win: “Sinners” — Francine Maisler
Could Win: “I Swear”
Animated Film
Will Win: “Zootropolis 2” — Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino
Could Win: “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
Children’s and Family Film
Will Win: “Zootropolis 2” — Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino
Could Win: “Arco”
Film Not in the English Language
Will Win: “Sentimental Value” — Joachim Trier, Maria Ekerhovd, Andrea Berentsen Ottmar
Could Win: “The Secret Agent”
Production Design
Will Win: “Frankenstein” — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau
Could Win: “Hamnet”
Cinematography
Will Win: “Sinners” — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Could Win: “One Battle After Another”
Costume Design
Will Win: “Frankenstein” — Kate Hawley
Could Win: “Hamnet”
Editing
Will Win: “F1” — Stephen Mirrione
Could Win: “One Battle After Another”
Make Up and Hair
Will Win: “Frankenstein” — Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey, Mike Hill, Megan Many
Could Win: “Sinners”
Sound
Will Win: “F1” — Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, Juan Peralta
Could Win: “One Battle After Another”
Special Visual Effects
Will Win: “F1” — Ryan Tudhope, Keith Alfred Dawson, Nicolas Chevallier, and Robert Harrington
Could Win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Original Score
Will Win: “Sinners” — Ludwig Göransson
Could Win: “Hamnet”
Documentary
Will Win: “Apocalypse in the Tropics” — Petra Costa and Alessandra Orofino
Could Win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Will Win: “Pillon” — Harry Lighton
Could Win: “The Ceremony”
British Short Animation
Will Win: “Cardboard” — J.P. Vine, Michaela Manas Malina
Could Win: “Two Black Boys in Paradise”
British Short Film
Will Win: “Terence” — Edem Kelman, Noah Reich
Could Win: “Nostalgie”
EE Rising Star Award
Will Win: Robert Aramayo
Could Win: Chase Infiniti
