The most dangerous migrant routes in the world where deaths have surged

Three of the world’s most dangerous migration routes have seen a surge in deaths, figures show, as campaigners warn tough immigration policies are pushing desperate people towards riskier journeys.

The UN’s Missing Migrants Project (MMP) has recorded 81,540 deaths worldwide since 2014, hitting a peak in 2024 when 9,197 refugees and asylum-seekers died trying to reach another country for a better life.

Despite a small decline in fatalities in 2025, the first month of 2026 was the deadliest January since records began, with 713 lives lost.

The deadliest single path is the Central Mediterranean route from North Africa to Southern Europe, with at least 26,416 people killed over the last decade. At least 501 have died trying to make the journey in the first weeks of 2026 already.

Two other routes have seen a particular surge in recent years. Deaths of migrants travelling overland from Afghanistan to Iran have risen by 1,900 per cent between 2019 and 2025 (65 to 1,323), with a particular increase since the Taliban retook control in 2021.

Lives lost between western Africa and Spain’s Canary Islands rose by 480 per cent during the same period (202 to 1,172).

[“These routes] are some of the most dangerous in the world, and certainly the ones where we’ve seen the greatest increases over time”, a spokesperson for the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), which runs the MMP, told The Independent.

The organisation believes that tougher policies merely move the problem elsewhere.

“We’re seeing that, because the counter-smuggling enforcement on a lot of the West and North African departure countries is getting stricter, people are leaving from as far south as the Gambia, an overseas journey of weeks, which is crazy when it’s often a fishing boat,” the spokesperson added.

Drowning during sea crossings is by far the leading cause of death (46,686), followed by transport accidents (7,188), lack of shelter, food or water (5,967), violent attacks (5,891) and illness (3,418).

European governments who have introduced strict policies to deter migrants claim this is the key to tackling the issue.

Downing Street insists its stringent set of asylum measure announced in November, will “dismantle the criminal networks profiting from human misery” while Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni has said that “crushing the traffickers’ business” is the best method for reducing deaths.

However, while the Central Mediterranean route saw a steady fall in deaths in 2024 and 2025, campaigners warn that tougher migration policies are driving desperate migrants towards more remote routes, into the hands of criminal smugglers in regions with little humanitarian presence and where deaths are less well documented.

“The more you restrict border crossings, the more people use more remote routes,” she said. “If you’re already breaking the law, you’re more likely to engage with criminal actors. This really is putting people’s lives at risk.”

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