Massachusetts has lost nearly 200,000 residents to other states in just five years – in a steady exodus that analysts say reflects rising taxes, soaring housing costs and a cooling job market.
A new report estimates that about 182,000 people left the Bay State between April 2020 and July 2025 – the equivalent of losing one-and-a-half Cambridges.
Researchers say the trend is not just a short-term blip after the pandemic. More people are choosing to leave than move in from other parts of the US – and that gap has persisted for years.
The analysis, released by the Pioneer Institute, warns that the outflow is weighing on the state’s workforce and economic growth.
Massachusetts imposes a 5 percent flat income tax, with income above $1 million subject to a 9 percent rate. The state also levies a 6.25 percent sales tax.
In Boston – long considered one of the nation’s most desirable places to live – property taxes have become a focal point of concern.
Average single-family tax bills expected to rise between 13 percent and 34 percent from 2023 to 2026, significantly raising the cost of homeownership.
Earlier this year, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu proposed a multi-year residential property tax relief plan designed to blunt the impact of those increases. The proposal, however, ultimately stalled, leaving the projected hikes in place.
In Boston – long considered one of the nation’s most desirable places to live – property taxes have become a focal point of concern
The consequences of these pressures are outlined in the Institute’s new report, The Massachusetts Labor Force: Now and Beyond.
While a recent surge in international immigration temporarily bolstered labor force numbers, the report cautions that the trend may prove short-lived.
It concludes that ‘domestic outmigration is a structural problem,’ reflecting deeper affordability and competitiveness challenges that cannot be indefinitely offset by foreign inflows.
Massachusetts remains one of just four states yet to regain its pre-pandemic private-sector employment levels.
Meanwhile, faster-growing states such as Florida, Texas and North Carolina continue to attract workers and businesses with attractive tax rates, lower living costs and warmer year-round weather.
Although the labor force expanded in 2024 and 2025, the report finds that the growth was ‘largely driven by international migration’ – a source projected to decline by nearly 90 percent from its 2024 peak by 2026 amid tightening federal immigration policy.
Broader economic indicators suggest momentum may be fading. The state’s GDP growth has trailed the national average for five consecutive quarters. According to Moody’s Analytics, Massachusetts is among roughly one-third of US states currently in or at high risk of recession.
Inflation remains elevated, particularly in Greater Boston, eroding purchasing power. Wage and salary growth has also slowed, reflecting fewer job openings and more cautious hiring.
Earlier this year, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu proposed a multi-year residential property tax relief plan designed to blunt the impact of those increases. The proposal, however, ultimately stalled, leaving the projected hikes in place
‘Economic growth and the labor force are intimately tied,’ the report states.
‘Strong economic tailwinds create the conditions necessary for businesses to confidently expand and hire workers, while uncertainty and downturn can lead the private sector to pull back.’
Beyond near-term economic softness, the report underscores longer-term demographic challenges.
Low birth rates, a shrinking youth population and an aging workforce are slowing natural population growth and constraining the future talent pipeline.
Boston’s population aged 60 and older is rising rapidly, with projections suggesting as many as 130,000 seniors could reside in the city by 2030.
As of 2025, more than 84,000 residents were age 65 or older.
Federal policy shifts could further intensify those headwinds. Higher interest rates raise borrowing costs for businesses.
Tariffs increase the price of imported goods and energy. Immigration restrictions limit the inflow of skilled workers and international students – populations on which Massachusetts’ universities and STEM industries heavily rely.
The report describes the shift as ‘the equivalent of losing one-and-a-half Cambridges,’ a reference to the college city of Cambridge where Harvard University is located, underscoring the scale of the population decline
The report also cautions that reductions in research funding from agencies such as the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation could disproportionately affect Massachusetts, which receives more such funding per capita than any other state.
Still, the authors emphasize that the Commonwealth retains many strengths. Massachusetts ranks eighth nationally in labor force participation and leads the nation in educational attainment.
‘These strengths can support renewal,’ the report concludes, ‘if paired with sound policy reforms.’
To build a sustainable workforce, the report recommends improving programs that help immigrants enter and succeed in the job market.
It also calls for expanding job training in high-demand fields, investing in vocational and technical education, and addressing the underlying economic challenges that are causing residents to leave the state.
Without action, the authors suggest, Massachusetts risks continued population loss, slower economic growth and a diminished position in the national economy.
