These four races will determine if there is actually a Democratic Tea Party

The first big primaries of the year begin next week. And it will start with a bang when Texas and North Carolina have their contests.

Much of the attention has been on the marquee Senate races, and for good reason. Texas’ ugly Republican primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and MAGA Attorney General Ken Paxton has Democrats thinking they can flip a seat, creating a contentious primary between James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

In North Carolina, Donald Trump’s feud with Republican Sen. Thom Tillis drove Tillis into retirement and polling shows the state’s former Democratic governor Roy Cooper has a real shot to win.

But what’s happening down ballot in House races is perhaps just as important for the future of the Democratic Party as it may dictate not just whether Democrats win a House majority, but what kind of House majority. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, one factor has remained constant: Democratic voters hate the leaders of their party.

This has made some voters willing to take a risk and vote for more left-wing candidates in safe seats. Look no further than New York City’s Zohran Mamdani. Then, this month, in the primary for the special election to fill Mikie Sherrill’s old seat in New Jersey’s 11th district, progressive activist Analilia Mejia beat a former congressman and a slate of more establishment.

This all bears striking similarity to when Republicans saw the Tea Party wave that produced a crop of hellraisers in the 2010s who paved the way for Trump. Here’s our slate of races that might show whether Democratic voters are mad enough to make a change.

North Carolina’s 4th District: The Old Democratic Party vs the New Coalition

North Carolina’s 4th district includes two key staples of the Democratic Party. It has an almost 20 percent Black population located in places like Durham. But it’s also the home to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Duke University.

In 2022, former state legislator Valerie Foushee beat Nida Allam, a Durham County commissioner. Allam has criticized Foushee for receiving money from the American Israel Public Affairs. According to OpenSecrets, Foushee received $419,455 in 2022 in that race.

Given the war in Gaza, Allam has criticized Foushee receiving the money. Foushee has said she would no longer accept money from AIPAC. Allam by contrast has received the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders. But given the growing dissatisfaction, it will pit the more traditional coalition within the party with a more insurgent progressive base.

Texas’s 15th District: Who can win back Latinos

Perhaps the most disorienting trend for Democrats in 2024 came when Trump flipped the ancestrally Democratic, majority Hispanic Rio Grande Valley in Texas.

Republicans sought to consolidate this through its mid-decade redistricting last year. But the growing backlash to Trump’s immigration policy has made Republicans nervous, especially in the 15th district.

Currently, Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz represents it. Establishment Democrats feel that Bobby Pulido, a former Tejano star and Latin Grammy-winning singer, can flip the seat blue again.

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