March Madness bracket breakdown: Everything you need to win your office pool… from the favorites to avoid to the upsets waiting to happen

For the next three weeks, madness takes over America. Productivity goes down, tabs get opened, words like ‘KenPom’ and ‘bubble’ and ‘Cinderella’ are thrown around.

Embrace it. It’s time for one of the grandest spectacles in American sports when 68 teams battle for a national title in men’s college basketball – played this year in Indianapolis.

But even for people who like the sport, it’s hard to follow along throughout the entire season from its start in November through to the end in April. 

Below, we have a prediction on how the tournament may play out as a whole. Then, the run-down on the favorites in the tournament, what makes them special, and why they’re just so dominant. 

After that, we have a few upsets for your consideration (because what’s the fun in picking nothing but favorites?) to help you (maybe, just maybe) win your bracket pools in your office, your families, or anywhere else you may partake in a little madness of your own.

Here is the Daily Mail rundown on the favorites to win the title and the upsets that could crash your bracket early. Happy picking!

How Could This All Play Out

I have unfortunate news for those who love upsets. Expect 2026 to look a lot like 2025.

A data analysis by yours truly found that the 2025 edition of the tournament was the third-least upset-heavy March Madness since the NCAA expanded the brackets to 64 teams in 1985. The lack of upsets was due to the dominance of the teams at the top of the field – which was then proven correct when all four one-seeds made the Final Four.

This year, it’s somewhat similar – except the range of teams to run to the Final Four is larger. Any of the top four seeds have shown their ability to beat the others in their weight class this year. Some select seeds in the five to seven range have also strung together strong resumes.

All of this is to say, it doesn’t seem like things are aligning for a year where there’s a lot of first-round upsets on the cards. However, there may be plenty of chances for one-seeds and two-seeds to fall apart down the stretch.

The Favorites 

Much like 2025, the top teams in the brackets are by far the head of the pack.

But considering all of them have shown their weaknesses all season long, it might not be the season for all ‘chalk’ in your selections.

Nevertheless, these are very clearly the strongest teams of the bunch.

Duke

One year after a heartbreaking end in the Final Four, the Duke Blue Devils are back at the top of the NCAA Tournament.

By the metrics, this Duke team is slightly better than last year’s team that featured the likes of NBA stars Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel. 

This year’s version of Flagg is National Player of the Year candidate Cameron Boozer, the son of former NBA star Carlos Boozer. He’s averaging a double-double and is set to be a high lottery pick in the upcoming draft. But the Devils’ depth is strong enough to rotate eight guys on at least 18 minutes.

If there’s any reason to doubt Duke, it’s due to a pair of recent injuries that have raised concerns. Star guard Caleb Foster is out for the ‘foreseeable future’ with a foot fracture while big man Patrick Ngongba missed the ACC Tournament due to an injured knee. Losing both of them for March could lead to disaster.

Arizona

The Wildcats are deeply talented and more than capable of a run to win their first national championship since 1997.

Anchored by a trio of freshmen in Koa Peat – a candidate for Freshman of the Year – Brayden Burries and Ivan Karchenkov, the Wildcats are rounded out by senior sniper Jaden Bradley.

But there’s no team in the tournament that shoots fewer 3-point attempts per game than the Wildcats. In fact, they attempted the fourth-fewest triples of any school in the nation this year.

It’s given them scares throughout the season. The Wildcats are 3-2 in games decided by five points or fewer and shot worse than 33 percent from beyond the arc in four of those contests.

Michigan

Top-to-bottom, there may not be a more well-rounded and complete team in the field than Michigan.

Coach of the Year contender Dusty May landed a massive transfer class in the offseason and they all turned into stars. Top transfer Yaxel Lendeborg has blossomed into a National Player of the Year candidate in his junior season while pickups Morez Johnson Jr (Illinois), Aday Mara (UCLA) and Elliot Cadeau (North Carolina) have all gelled to form a formidable unit.

They are strong in nearly every phase of the game and use their size well to serve as the top defensive team in the nation, per KenPom. Offense doesn’t take a back seat as the analytics website puts them at eighth in the sport.

If the Wolverines get bounced before reaching the Final Four, the likely reasons would be their falling 3-point accuracy and tendency to cough up the ball (averaging 12.1 turnovers a game). Additionally, the loss of role player LJ Cason to injury could impact them.

Florida

The NCAA Tournament has never seen a pair of teams go back-to-back consecutively. After Connecticut claimed two titles in 2023 and 2024, Florida is hoping to repeat their feat from 2006 and 2007 – making history in the process.

After a rough period of transition for transfers Boogie Fland and Xavien Lee, they’ve both come around as strong contributors to a strong unit.

Florida also boasts the most talented front-court in the country with 6-foot-9 junior Thomas Haugh and 6-foot-11 center Alex Condon.

But like Arizona, the Gators have problems from deep. Except, while the Wildcats rarely attempt triples, Florida doesn’t hit them – owning the second-worst 3-point accuracy of any team in the tournament.

Wildcard teams

• No. 2 seed UConn (East Region): The Huskies are the true definition of a ‘wild card’. After dominating the hardest non-conference schedule in the nation, they struggled mightily in a weak Big East. When Connecticut is hot, they have a higher ceiling than any team in the country. If they’re as cold as they were when they lost to St. John’s, they could be out early in the toughest region of this tournament.
• No. 2 seed Houston (South Region): Last year’s runners-up are one of the best teams in the nation again, anchored by coach Kelvin Sampson’s trademark defense. But they don’t have consistent scoring depth. Across their 34 game schedule, the Cougars have only two players who average more than 12 points per game. That could spell trouble in a possible Elite Eight rematch with Florida.
• No. 2 seed Iowa State (Midwest Region): The Cyclones are a very well-rounded unit and come out of the battle-tested Big XII alongside teams like Houston and Arizona. Michigan is similar in profile to them and Iowa State always makes games with teams in their orbit entertaining.
• No. 4 seed Kansas (East Region): All eyes are on a possible Duke matchup as the Jayhawks could match up well defensively with the Blue Devils. The one unknown factor is star freshman Darryn Peterson, whose absences throughout the season have led to controversy.
• No. 4 seed Arkansas / No. 5 seed Wisconsin (West Region): If these two teams face each other in the Round of 32, it’ll be appointment television. Both squads are stronger on offense than they are on defense and on hot nights, either of them could beat each other – and then possibly roll that over into Arizona in the Sweet 16.

The Upsets

Yes, we did just say that there may not be any major first-round upsets this year. BUT, this is all about fun. Take some risk and consider these selections.

14-seed over 3-seed: Wright State over Virginia  It will probably not happen, but if we had to pick one, it’d be this. Virginia takes a lot of 3-point shots (38th in KenPom) and assists a lot of their field goals (42nd in KenPom). Inversely, Wright State prevents a lot of 3-point attempts (35th in KenPom) and assists (19th in KenPom).

13-seed over 4-seed: Hofstra over Alabama  Both teams do a good job at shooting the 3-ball (Hofstra 29th in 3-point percentage, Alabama attempts the most threes in the country) but the Pride run a much slower offensive tempo (317th fastest in KenPom) than Alabama (4th fastest). Hofstra is also much better at stopping two-pointers, which could pose problems for ‘Bama.

12-seed over 5-seed: Akron over Texas Tech  If Texas Tech was fully healthy, the pick may have been High Point over Wisconsin. But the Red Raiders are without star JT Toppin for the rest of the season and co-star Christian Anderson got hurt in the Big XII Tournament. Anderson is expected to be back against an Akron squad that is the eighth-best shooting team in the country.

11-seed over 6-seed: South Florida over Louisville  Bryan Hodgson is set to be one of the most talked-about coaches in this year’s #SearchSZN and for good reason. His Bulls are riding the nation’s third-longest win streak into March Madness. Meanwhile, Louisville has had numerous injury issues and lost four of their last eight games.