Between local heroes Newsom and Harris, California Democrats have a firm preference for the 2028 nomination
In the 2028 Democratic primary, California Democrats would overwhelmingly prefer Gov. Gavin Newsom to former Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a new poll.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents named Newsom as their top choice, compared to the 9 percent who said the same of Harris, according to the Los Angeles Times-UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll.
Both candidates are regularly in the 2028 conversation, and their home state of California would be a core part of their base.
“It’s quite a positive result for Newsom,” Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, told the Times of the results. “He’s separated himself from the rest of the pack, and especially when you compare him to the other major Californian in the considerations, he’s three times as much as Kamala. That’s quite impressive.”
The showing was an especially worrying one for Harris, who came in behind a pair of out-of-state officials: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was the top pick for 14 percent or respondents, and former Biden administration Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who also had 9 percent support.
Harris and Newsom, despite their similar politics and San Francisco Bay Area roots, have never competed against each other in an election.
Instead, they followed parallel tracks into the upper echelons of Democratic politics.
Harris rose from being San Francisco district attorney to state attorney general, then California’s U.S. senator.
Gov. Newsom similarly began his career in San Francisco, climbing from the city board of supervisors to the mayor’s office, then reaching the lieutenant governorship and finally the top state job.
Ironically, neither politician got strong support in the highly liberal Bay Area in the March poll, compared with other regions in the state.
The two have campaigned together in the past — Harris came to Newsom’s aide as he faced a recall fight, and Newsom was a vocal supporter of the Biden administration — but their detente could be coming to an end.
Last month, Newsom said “fate will determine” whether the two California heavyweights finally go up against each other at the ballot box in 2028.
“You can only control what you can control,” he told CNN.
Post-2024, Newsom has been far closer to the spotlight than Harris.
He has positioned himself as the Trump administration’s loudest Democratic critic, aping the president’s confrontational social media style. Newsom has further boosted his profile by launching a podcast and releasing a new memoir.
Harris has been quieter, though in 2025 she also released a memoir, 107 Days, about the chaotic shake-up on the 2024 Democratic ticket that saw her replace President Joe Biden and ultimately fail to beat Donald Trump.
On the Republican side, a similar battle between allies could play out in 2028.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are considered the two frontrunners, with Donald Trump Jr. in third.
For the general election, the popular prediction site Kalshi shows Newsom and Vance in a dead heat, each with a 20 percent chance of a 2028 victory, while Rubio is narrowly trailing at 17 percent.
