Updated ,first published
The AFL has kept the grand final start time at 2.30. The next thing it should announce is that opening round is being scrapped.
Accepting the need to give exposure to the northern markets is not difficult. But it becomes tough to swallow the arguments from three weeks ago about its importance to the growth of the game when not one game is being played north of the “Barassi line” this weekend.
It gets madder.
The Swans will not have hosted an AFL game for 27 days when they play a Sydney derby against the Giants on April 17. That match will be the only AFL game in the city for that month.
And there is just one match played on the Gold Coast in 34 days between their game against West Coast in mid-March and May 3.
Talk about taking us for April fools.
Yes, the Easter show keeps the Giants out of home for much of the first half of every season (a massive disadvantage to their performance and growth).
But the absence of clubs from the biggest market in Australia is impossible to defend.
It’s like serving canapés at 6pm and then making the guests wait until 10pm to serve the main course.
The AFL has disrupted the rhythms that underpin many supporters’ winters, increased the degree of difficulty attached to preparing players and created misaligned breaks between opposing teams leading into games.
The answer to the question of how best we can support northern markets has to be better than stuffing up an already dubious fixture.
The grand final start time is locked in until Tasmania starts.
The fixture conversation about what works best for football, fans and the future must start now, as the entry of Tasmania means a bye every week and each team having to play an even number of games, either 22 or 24, in a season.
The AFL needs to scrap the opening round, determine whether it wants clubs playing an extra game and what that means for Gather Round and the structure of the competition.
Does the league introduce conferences, a mid-season competition, a reset to play for finals spots at season’s end or maintain a similar structure with the wildcard and the top eight?
These are the questions the AFL must answer – and bring football fans and clubs into the conversation.
The recession they had to have: Negative growth hurting Carlton
Carlton were so famous in the 1980s for their matchwinning third quarters, the term “premiership quarter” was invented to describe the blitzkrieg.
Unfortunately, this season, the Blues are delivering the “collapse quarter” every week after half-time.
In their three third quarters this season they have conceded 131 points and scored 43.
In economic terms, three consecutive quarters of such negative growth represent a severe economic downturn. Carlton are now in the recession they have to have.
They have outscored the opposition by 71 points in the three first halves and been outscored by 153 points in the second half.
Against Melbourne, they were outscored 88 points to 31 in the second half after building a 43-point lead early.
Sadly, Carlton are attempting to be the front-running Pride of Jenni and ending up the forever-losing Drongo.
Melbourne are better at playing fast football because they have a speedy star in Kysaiah Pickett and premiership converters in Bayley Fritsch and Brody Mihocek.
Carlton don’t contain the same hardened performers.
They also have too many substandard performers who drop marks and miss targets when the pressure builds. Unfortunately for their coach, Michael Voss, the pattern is familiar and every opponent and supporter knows Carlton’s vulnerability.
The truth is Carlton lost their handle on the game midway through the second quarter at the MCG without the Demons hurting them on the scoreboard. The finish was inevitable.
Now the trend is a major concern, and it’s threatening to become an avalanche of self-doubt if not turned around at some point.
Big Boy month has arrived early at Essendon
Essendon coach Brad Scott was – rightfully – given reassurance after last week’s debacle to keep coaching and improve the team rather than worrying about external noise about his future.
Wearing blinkers might help his state of mind.
He should also search, like a horse trainer, for any gear changes he can make to help the team as the Bombers search for a path to victory.
That will be difficult for the next month. The club finds itself having to resist the temptation to introduce young players before they are ready physically and mentally to perform at their best while shedding more experienced players who have proven themselves incapable of lifting the team.
Pick No.9 from last year’s national draft, Sullivan Robey, kicked four goals in the VFL but needs more time to build his body after a back injury restricted his pre-season. However, the signs were good.
Other first-round picks Dyson Sharp and Jacob Farrow have shown promise and can be part of Nate Caddy, Zach Reid and Isaak Kako’s new generation of Baby Bombers.
But Scott needs to manage selection over the next month so the first year players aren’t thrown up against the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast in the next three matches like lambs to the slaughter.
Jordan Ridley is a chance to return, and he will be welcome. But Darcy Parish, Matt Guelfi, Jade Gresham and Archie Roberts should also consider themselves on borrowed time unless their performances improve. Jaxon Prior tries harder than most but is merely holding the fort while others emerge.
Zach Merrett had a below-par match, but his effort cannot be questioned – and nine tackles showed his commitment to defence. Sam Durham needs the same “bit of a poke” to get going as Chris Fagan delivered to Will Ashcroft at the final break on Saturday. Surely Andy McGrath is experienced enough to make consistently good decisions when using the ball.
These considered decisions are tough when staring down the barrel of a 17th consecutive loss, which will equal the club record set in 2016.
But given the injuries that cruelled Essendon last season, the club should be strong enough to consider this year in isolation from 2025 (while being aware it is tougher for supporters).
After all, it’s an era of losing streaks.
The Bombers’ run of outs follows North Melbourne’s 20 consecutive losses and West Coast’s 16 losses in a row in 2023, Richmond’s 10 defeats to end 2024 and Adelaide’s 16 losses straight after losing their first 13 matches of 2020. Ten of Carlton’s 11 longest losing streaks have occurred this century.
Scott would need to conjure a bigger miracle than the one the Western Bulldogs created in 2000, when they upset the all-conquering Bombers with a defensive zone to foil their dreams of spending a season unbeaten, for Essendon to avoid extending the losing streak to 17.
In the midst of this low point, the club’s senior players need to steal a phrase their former premiership defender Damien Hardwick used about the Suns and “grow the f–k up”.
“Big boy month” has arrived at the Hangar in April. How they handle this patch will set in train the next era.
Bloody Xerri
North Melbourne should be angry with Tristan Xerri. To appear to wipe blood from his nose on Essendon’s Andrew McGrath was undisciplined and ugly.
The only question now is how many matches Xerri should miss as a result with the tribunal to deliberate.
It should be three matches. He deserves at least two for the act and one as a deterrent to anyone dumb enough to repeat the action. To his credit, he rang McGrath on Sunday to apologise. It was the least he could do.
That would see him miss matches against Carlton, the Brisbane Lions and Richmond. Two are very winnable games but would be made much more difficult with their ruckman absent.
Xerri plays on the edge to provide his team with a genuine presence around the ball. His tackling and follow-up often puts him at the risk of being suspended.
But to do what he did on Saturday night, even allowing for the emotion in the game, was giving the opposition an advantage a real competitor would never be silly enough to hand over.
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