An emerging shutdown deal doesn't extend expiring health subsidies. Here's what could happen to them
A legislative package that appears on track to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history leaves out any clear resolution on the expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits that have made private health insurance less costly for millions of Americans.
The deal agreed to by Senate Republicans and a handful of Democrats on Sunday instead only guarantees a December vote on the enhanced premium tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year without congressional action.
Even then, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La, hasn’t agreed to a matching House vote on the issue, making the chances of an extension increasingly bleak.
Some Democratic lawmakers looking to compromise have sought one-or two-year stopgap measures that would keep the subsidies alive, but they’ve failed to get buy-in from Republican leadership.
Meanwhile, some Republican lawmakers and President Donald Trump have argued for letting the subsidies expire and suggested alternatives to defray health costs, such as federal flexible spending accounts given to every eligible American.
As the shutdown deal advances, here’s what its passage could mean for Affordable Care Act tax credits – and for the enrollees who benefit from them.
The subsidies could expire without any replacement
If the current legislative package passes and Congress doesn’t take any other action on health care costs this year, the enhanced premium tax credits that have helped many Americans pay for Affordable Care Act health insurance plans for four years will disappear.
On average, that will more than double what subsidized enrollees currently pay for premiums, according to an analysis by the health care research nonprofit KFF.
Hardest hit will be a small number of higher earners who will have to pay a lot more without the extra subsidies and a large number of lower earners who’ll have to pay a small amount more, said Cynthia Cox, a vice president and director of KFF’s ACA program.
Over time, as many younger, healthier people inevitably forgo more expensive coverage, insurance companies are expected to further increase costs for members of the covered population to account for them being older and sicker.
If more Americans are uninsured and can’t pay out of pocket for emergency health care, some of their health costs will also fall on hospitals and the government.
The sticker shock of Affordable Care Act price hikes already has been hitting Americans shopping for next year’s health insurance since the window for selecting next year’s coverage began Nov. 1.
One Pennsylvania resident who relies on marketplace health insurance, 51-year-old hair stylist Christine Meehan, told The Associated Press her $160 a month plan is set to increase by about $100 a month starting next year. Her annual deductible will be higher too.
