Welcome to Variety Awards HQ — your weekly command center for the Oscars race.
It’s January 12, 2026, and Oscar nomination voting is officially underway.
After a quiet holiday break, the first 12 days of the new year have kicked the race into overdrive. Every strategist and studio is pounding the pavement, treating this final stretch like the last hour of Election Day: “If you’re in line, stay in line.” Translation: It’s a close race everywhere, and one more screening, one more call, and one more push could make all the difference.
Just ask Fernanda Torres. Last year, she not only squeezed into the actress category for “I’m Still Here” but pulled her film along for the ride with a surprise best picture nomination. Do we have another one of those waiting for us?
As we head into the final stretch before nominations are revealed on January 22, here are the 20 questions keeping me up at night that I’m not going to answer here (at least not yet):
- Will “One Battle After Another” and/or “Sinners” tie or break the all-time Oscar nomination record of 14?
- Is there such a thing as too many non-English films in the race? Could vote-splitting become a factor?
- After the DGA and SAG matched 5/5 in directors (only the second time in history), will the Academy follow suit—or throw us a curveball with an international or under-the-radar filmmaker?
- There’s always a “normal people” movie in the mix. Is that “F1,” “Wicked: For Good,” or “Avatar: Fire and Ash”?
- Will Golden Globe winner Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) or Globe and SAG nominee Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”) claim the final best actor slot? Or could we see a surprise entirely?
- Will Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”) and Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”) become best actress nominees as the sole representatives for their films?
- Pundits have locked in the same five men for supporting actor — Benicio Del Toro, Jacob Elordi, Paul Mescal, Sean Penn, and Stellan Skarsgård. But is that actually correct?
- How many women from “Sentimental Value” will be nominated?
- Are the Oscars cool enough to nominate Amy Madigan, Miles Caton, and “The Ugly Stepsister” all in one year?
- Did the PGA nomination for “Weapons” signal a best original screenplay nod lurking? Or even best picture itself?
- Will “Bugonia” land one, or more technical nominations?
- Did the ASC snub for “Hamnet” (cinematographer Łukasz Żal) mean anything?
- Will production design and costume design recognize the same five films?
- Could there be a non-best picture nominee in film editing?
- Will “Sinners” score two original song nominations?
- Can Crunchyroll’s “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” break into the animated feature lineup?
- Will Neon sweep all five international feature slots? “It Was Just an Accident” (France), “Sirât” (Spain), “The Secret Agent” (Brazil), “Sentimental Value” (Norway), and “No Other Choice” (South Korea).
- Will the Documentary Branch pull another jaw-dropper and snub the frontrunner—like they did with “Jane,” “Apollo 11,” “Three Identical Strangers,” and “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”
- What are the casting directors ACTUALLY considering when voting on casting?
- Will I accurately predict the three shorts categories? (Spoiler: Probably not).
Oscar nomination voting closes Jan. 16 at 5 p.m. Pacific. Nominees will be announced Jan. 22.
See some of the highlights of the New Year below.
Ariana Grande Toasts the Art of Casting at Soho House West Hollywood and Says Goodbye to ‘Wicked’ at CAA
On Monday, Jan. 5, a standing-room-only crowd packed Soho House West Hollywood as Ariana Grande moderated a spirited and insightful Q&A with casting directors Bernard Telsey and Tiffany Little Canfield. Balancing sharp humor with genuine admiration, Grande “roasted and toasted” her collaborators while guiding a conversation that demystified the casting process behind their blockbuster success. The lively exchange kept guild voters laughing while offering real insight into the creative decisions that shape a film from the ground up.
The next day on Jan. 6, demand was so high that attendees wrapped around CAA’s offices — with turnaways — for a screening and Q&A with Ariana Grande, moderated by Kevin McCarthy. Speaking candidly to a room filled with AMPAS members and industry insiders, Grande reflected on spending five years with the role in “Wicked: For Good,” framing the project as a heartfelt farewell. Following the Q&A, she stayed to mingle one-on-one with attendees, even FaceTiming children of guests, turning the event into a rare, personal moment of connection.
Variety also sat down with the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and SAG nominated star, where she talked about her love for acting.
Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons Draw Full House for All-Guild Q&A
On Jan. 7, a Los Angeles all-guild screening of “Bugonia” brought together director Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons for a wide-ranging Q&A moderated by Nathan Fielder.
It followed a week of events for the filmmaking team.
On Jan. 6, The American Cinematheque’s Aero Theatre hosted a packed screening and Q&A with Plemons, moderated by Adam Scott. Plemons offered thoughtful insight into his performance and the film’s darker comedic edge.
And last weekend, screenwriter Will Tracy took center stage for an all-guild screening and Q&A, moderated by David Hemingson.
Jesse Plemons is also the cover story for this week’s Extra Edition of Variety, penned by yours truly. Give it a read!
Chloé Zhao Joins Seth Rogen at the Directors Guild
A Los Angeles special screening of “Hamnet” featured a Q&A with director Chloé Zhao, Jessie Buckley, Jacobi Jupe, artisans and producers on Jan. 5.
On Wed. Jan. 7, Zhao returned for a Directors Guild screening and Q&A moderated by recent Golden Globe winner Seth Rogen, focusing on her approach to adaptation, tone and visual storytelling.
Demi Moore and Al Pacino Stomp for Kate Hudson in ‘Song Sung Blue’
Soho House hosted a Tastemaker screening and Q&A with Kate Hudson, moderated by Demi Moore. The evening drew a high-profile crowd of A-listers and Oscar nominees and winners including Leonardo DiCaprio, Al Pacino, Mark Ruffalo and David O. Russell — and showcased Hudson’s performance alongside a warm, reflective conversation.
The support is building for Hudson’s outstanding work in Craig Brewer’s impactful drama, which also stars Hugh Jackman.
A special screening of “Song Sung Blue” paired director Craig Brewer and star Kate Hudson with moderator Rian Johnson for an engaging Q&A.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 06: Rian Johnson, Kate Hudson and Craig Brewer seen at Focus Features’ “Song Sung Blue” Special Screening at DGA Theater Complex on January 06, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Eric Charbonneau/Focus Features via Getty Images)
Focus Features via Getty Images
‘Train Dreams’ Draws Strong AMPAS and WGA Turnout
WEST HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 05: (L-R) Clayton Davis, Clint Bentley, Joel Edgerton, Greg Kwedar, Adolpho Veloso and Bryce Dessner attend Netflix’s “Train Dreams” AMPAS Tastemaker Event at San Vincente Bungalows Santa Monica on January 05, 2026 in Santa Monica, California. (Photo by Phillip Faraone/Getty Images for Netflix)
Getty Images for Netflix
A screening of “Train Dreams” at San Vicente Bungalows Santa Monica brought together composer Bryce Dessner, cinematographer Adolpho Veloso, co-writer Greg Kwedar, star Joel Edgerton and director/co-writer Clint Bentley for a robust Q&A moderated by Variety’s Clayton Davis.
With AMPAS and WGA members in attendance, the conversation explored the film’s visual language, score and literary roots, capping off an evening of focused, craft-driven discussion.
‘Sirāt’ Score-to-Picture Event Stuns at Avalon Hollywood
On Wed. Jan. 7, a completely full Avalon Hollywood hosted a score-to-picture event for “Sirāt,” with Kangding Ray performing his full set live. Director Oliver Laxe delivered a moving introduction before a Q&A moderated by Mark McGille of the LA Philharmonic. The immersive experience left attendees visibly energized and eager to revisit the film through its music.
Oscar voting has officially opened, kicking off a five-day period that will determine nominations for another competitive awards season.
The 11,000-member Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences began casting ballots at 9 a.m. PT across 19 branches representing various disciplines. Voting remains open through Jan. 16 at 5 p.m.
The most up-to-date predictions are below.
Best Picture
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.) ***
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Robert Kaplow
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.) — Zach Cregger
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar ***
Casting
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Robin D. Cook
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.) — Allison Jones
Animated Feature
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
Production Design
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — James Price, Prue Howard, Sarah Carter
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Bleachler and Monique Champagne
Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Darius Khondji
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Łukasz Żal
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso
Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Malgosia Turzanska
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Paul Tazewell
Film Editing
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Evan Schiff
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Michael P. Shawver
Makeup and Hairstyling
“The Alto Knights” (Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“The Ugly Stepsister” (IFC)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Sound
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirât” (Neon)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (DC Studios)
Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Bryce Dessner
Original Song
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from “Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment) — Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick ***
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson and Alice Smith
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“Cutting Through Rocks” (Autlook Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“Seeds” (Interior Films)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“Kokuho” from Japan (GKids)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
Animated Short
“Cardboard” (Locksmith Animation) — dir. J.P. Vine
“Éiru” (GKids) — dir. Giovanna Ferrari ***
“Hurikán” (AEON Production) — dir. Jan Saska
“The Quinta’s Ghost” (Illusorium Films) — dir. James A. Castillo
“The Shyness of Trees” (Gobelins, l’Ecole de l’Image) — dir. Sofiia Chuikovska, Loïck Du Plessis D’Argentré, Lina Han, Simin He, Jiaxin Huang, Maud Le Bras, Bingqing Shu
Documentary Short
“All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) — dir. Joshua Seftel ***
“All the Walls Came Down” (Interloper Films) — dir. Ondi Timoner
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films) — dir. Brent Renaud and Craig Renaud
“Chasing Time” (Exposure Labs) — dir. Sarah Keo and Jeff Orlowski-Yang
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films) — dir. Geeta Gandbhir, Christalyn Hampton
Live Action Short
“Extremist” (The New Yorker) — dir. Aleksandr Molochnikov
“Pantyhose” (Wildhog Productions) — dir. Fabian Munsterhjelm
“Rock, Paper, Scissors” (National Film and Television School)
“The Singers” (Highway West Entertainment)
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (The New Yorker) ***
