Yet, Netanyahu’s focus on the tactical present, while paying little attention to the strategic future, has been heightened by this new ground offensive. Israeli government statements regarding the latest move have stated Israel will “capture” the strip, while some of the prime minister’s far-right allies have gone as far as claiming Israel was re-occupying it.
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Compare this with what Netanyahu said after a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in which he agreed to work with the Trump administration to ensure the president’s “bold vision” of a redeveloped Gaza became a reality. This is a vision that also requires the “voluntary removal” of an undisclosed number of Gazans to unnamed countries in the region. A different and better thought out plan for reconstruction, put forward by Egypt on behalf of other Arab states, has been flatly rejected by the prime minister and the US president.
Absent of any realistic post-conflict plan, a renewed Israeli ground offensive risks its troops becoming enmeshed in a forever war – forces occupying Gaza or sections of it without any foreseeable strategic outcome, simply to protect the gains from a series of tactical victories.
Militaries generally have a poor record as occupying forces, particularly when the local population see you as such. And the Israeli public will want to know what the end game is for their children who will be asked to perform this task.
Before the invasion of Iraq, Colin Powell’s advice to then-president George W. Bush was: “If you break it, you own it.” That rule applies even more to Israel and Gaza considering Palestinians don’t have the physical distance that Washington had from Iraq.
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All of this makes the apparent lack of interest in, or preparation for, the nature of Gazan society the day after hostilities end of great concern.
As far as Australia is concerned, the government will face these realities confident that its first-term handling of the issue has not cost it politically. For all the heat it caused in terms of antisemitism, protests and media coverage, it was largely absent as an issue come election time.
Regardless of what transpires with this new offensive, in the absence of any real leverage, the Australian government will signal its position through voting in the UN, and continuing to call for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages.
Dr Rodger Shanahan is an author and Middle East analyst.
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