Donald Trump has made a unique and sudden intellectual contribution to the future of Ukraine and European defence, shifting the debate away from an assumption that Kyiv must negotiate or die – to a belief it could destroy the Kremlin’s army.
This remarkable volte face is being seized upon in Europe with as much vigour as the efforts made to look away when he backed Vladimir Putin over Ukraine or when he threatened to invade allies like Denmark and Canada.
Trump says all kinds of stuff. Much of it, like his attacks on the UK after he was feted by its king, are politely ignored by a government keen to keep him onside – or at least not drive him further to the dark side.
But after meeting Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday during the UN general assembly in New York, he posted on his social media that: “Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act.
“After seeing the Economic trouble (the war) is causing Russia, I think Ukraine with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”
He made no commitment to help Ukraine do that. But his statement shifted the entire debate among Ukraine’s allies away from despondency towards outside victory.
No other western leader has spelled out the desire to see Russia defeated in Ukraine more starkly.
For the last six months, the focus has been on how to get Ukraine to agree a ceasefire that allows for the loss of about a fifth of its territory in return for peace underwritten by (pretty feeble) western military assurances.
Europe moved fast to cement Trump’s off-the-cuff response into a wider policy.
“We can achieve much more; not all European states have done what they promised Ukraine for a long time. We need to look at what other financial and military options we have,” German foreign minister Johann Wadephul told radio station Deutschlandfunk.
Russia was rattled. The Kremlin issued a statement hitting back at Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine could win.
“As far as we understand, President Trump’s statements were made after communicating with Zelensky and, apparently, under the influence of a vision set out by Zelensky,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. “This vision contrasts sharply with our understanding of the current state of affairs.
“The fact that Ukraine is being encouraged in every possible way to continue hostilities and the argument that Ukraine can win something back is, in our view, a mistaken argument… The dynamics on the front lines speak for themselves.”
Ukraine is not winning. Neither is Russia. The war is at a bloody stalemate. Trench warfare has given way to drone conflicts while tiny groups of infantry scrabble in ruined landscapes for survival and are hunted by unmanned aircraft the size of birds.
