Gower Street Analytics has projected that the global box office will reach $35 billion in 2026, marking a second consecutive year of growth with a 5% increase over current estimates for 2025.
The forecast would make 2026 the highest-grossing year worldwide since 2019’s $42.3 billion haul, surpassing 2023’s $33.9 billion, according to the theatrical analytics firm’s annual year-ahead projection.
“We predict 2026 will be the highest grossing global year since 2019 ($42.3 billion), topping the current high of 2023 ($33.9 billion),” said Gower Street chief analyst Thomas Beranek, who led the 2026 projection work. “Especially in the markets driven by Hollywood product we expect the most significant growth.”
At current exchange rates, the 2026 estimate would still trail the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) by 12%.
Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos noted the firm’s track record with such forecasts. “For 2024, our early forecast landed within 5% of the actual global year-end result, a year ahead of time,” he said. “For 2025, we’re tracking toward a final global total within 2% of our original $33 billion forecast from 12 months ago.”
The projection, which Gower Street releases each December, utilizes data from the company’s Forecast service based on current release calendars alongside additional analyst assessment.
For North America, the firm projects the domestic market will finish 11% up on 2025 at approximately $9.9 billion, though that remains 14% behind the 2017-2019 average.
The international market excluding China is predicted to finish 5% ahead of 2025 at approximately $18 billion, representing an 11% gap versus the 2017-2019 average at current exchange rates. Breaking down the key regions, Gower Street estimates Europe, Middle East, and Africa at $10.05 billion (up 7% versus 2025), Asia Pacific excluding China at $5.3 billion (flat versus 2025), and Latin America at $2.65 billion (up 9% versus 2025).
“There is an incredibly strong franchise-led release calendar for 2026 with new instalments in massively popular film series including ‘Avengers,’ ‘Spider-Man,’ ‘Toy Story,’ ‘Dune,’ ‘Star Wars,’ ‘Super Mario Bros,’ ‘Minions,’ ‘Jumanji,’ ‘Scream,’ ‘The Fockers,’ and ‘Hunger Games,’” said Rob Mitchell, Gower Street’s director of theatrical insights. “But there are also many potentially huge hits among non-sequels, including musical biopic ‘Michael’; the live action version of ‘Moana’; and new titles from legendary blockbuster directors Christopher Nolan (‘The Odyssey‘) and Steven Spielberg (‘Disclosure Day’); among many others. Audiences will be spoilt for choice.”
China is conservatively estimated at $7.1 billion, down 4% versus 2025 estimates. The market remains the hardest to predict due to a limited release calendar at this stage, according to Gower Street, despite generating both the biggest local title of all-time with “Ne Zha 2” and the No. 2 import title ever with “Zootopia 2” this year.
Gower Street cautioned that the early prediction could see fluctuation as the release calendar evolves, particularly with several untitled studio releases currently dated. The projection also cannot account for unexpected global events.
Gower Street Analytics, founded in 2015 and partnered with Comscore, provides theatrical predictive analytics covering over 85 markets through its proprietary Forecast box office simulation platform.
