Devastating population decline predicted in deep red state by 2040 as counties lose up to a third of residents
Areas of West Virginia that used to employ tens of thousands of people in the now-dying coal industry are facing huge population declines over the next 15 years.
McDowell County, once the world’s largest coal producer, will lose 32 percent of its residents by 2040, according to grim projections by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
There were 19,111 people living in McDowell County in 2020, when the US Census was last taken. Hamilton Lombard, who leads the center’s demographic research group, believes there will be only 13,037 people by 2040.
The county’s numbers have already fallen to just above 17,000 as of 2024. It’s a far cry from the population of around 100,000 that the county had in the 1950s at the height of the coal boom.
This is not limited to McDowell, as 10 other nearby counties stand to shed tens of thousands of people between them. This will gradually translate into staggering losses in economic production and tax revenue for the state.
Lombard told the Daily Mail that this ongoing trend is not primarily driven by outward migration, though there are certainly natives, particularly college graduates, who have been moving elsewhere to find opportunity.
In 2019 and 2020, McDowell County had nearly twice as many deaths, 638 total, than births, 339, according to data from the West Virginia Department of Health.
Lombard said: ‘There are really only a few other places in the country that are higher than that. Most of them are retirement communities, and McDowell County is not anything like a retirement community in Florida.’
A decaying, unused church in Switchback, a town in McDowell County. The county is expected to lose 32 percent of its population by 2040
An abandoned coal mining town in Fayette County, West Virginia
Downtown Welch in McDowell County. It is expected to lose 32 percent of its population by 2040
By looking at the current age distribution in these counties, which skews toward people in their 60s and 70s, Lombard was able to confidently make predictions about their future populations. He also took historical demographic trends into account.
‘If you get past a certain age, you’re more likely to die than have a child, would be the crude way of putting it,’ he said. ‘That’ll make it very hard to grow, because even if you’re attracting people, which McDowell County isn’t, you’ve got to attract enough people every single year to make up for that deficit, and that’s just very hard to do.’
Abandoned coal mines, sparsely-traveled town streets and out-of-business signs tacked to the doors of once-bustling establishments are common sights in McDowell County and rural West Virginia as a whole.
The opioid epidemic has also wreaked havoc on the state. In 2013, opioid overdoses became the leading cause of death for West Virginians under the age of 45.
The coal industry has also been steadily phased out in favor of cleaner energy sources since the 1980s, gradually leaving residents with fewer and fewer jobs.
But it was not always like this. McDowell County used to be a vibrant place to live that attracted young people looking for work.
‘If you look at McDowell County back in 1980, it had a younger population than Washington, DC. It was one of the younger counties in the country,’ Lombard said. ‘Today, the median age there is 44, and in Washington, DC it is 34. It’s growing far older than DC just by losing so many young adults.’
The 1980s marked the beginning of the end for coal in West Virginia and other producing states. Jobs in the industry steadily declined throughout the Clinton and Obama administrations as well.
A home that burned to the ground in Boone County and was never rebuilt
Hamilton Lombard, the lead demographer with the Cooper Center, told the Daily Mail that ‘the prognosis is fairly grim’ for much of West Virginia over the next 15 years
Downtown Logan in West Virginia was built from the coal industry but has been losing its population
Coal production in West Virginia was cut in half from 2008 to 2016, largely because natural gas became far cheaper.
Another sign of how much things have soured in McDowell County is its life expectancy, which was 66.3 years as of 2021. That’s a full 12 years shorter than the national average of 78.4 years.
Lombard noted that McDowell County’s life expectancy is on par with several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda, Eritrea and Ethiopia.
It’s not all bad for West Virginia though, with some places actually having a bit of a rebound thanks to economic and workforce changes spurred on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Five years ago, all seven coalfield counties, including McDowell, had more people moving out than coming in. Today, that’s only true of two of them.
Lombard says people who work remotely are moving to these traditionally downtrodden areas for cheaper housing.
‘People have looked at some of these rural areas a lot more closely and realized, if you want to live in McDowell County, you can buy a house for $50,000…and these are not homes that need to be gutted. They’re very, very livable,’ he said.
McDowell County and areas like it, despite having homes that cheap, are still not doing enough to attract those with hybrid or remote schedules, Lombard said.
A man waits for his meal in this August 2022 file photo at the Sterling Drive-In in Welch, West Virginia. Welch is the county seat of McDowell County
The areas benefiting the most from white collar transplants are Tucker County, south of Pittsburgh, and eastern West Virginia, which is close to Washington, DC.
‘It’s been so different since 2020, and continues to be so different. I think there’s a lot more hope for at least some of these communities. I wouldn’t say all of them,’ Lombard said.
‘On one hand, the prognosis is fairly grim. But if you look at the last couple years, it seems like some solutions have come up that just weren’t obvious before 2020 on how they can turn themselves around,’ he added.
