Experts predict egg prices will only increase — here’s why

Since highly pathogenic avian influenza, or H5N1 – better known as bird flu – was first detected in the U.S. in 2022, it has wreaked havoc on the natural world, tearing through delicate populations of wild birds and spreading to mammals, killing some species in devastating numbers.

Meanwhile, the disease is also acutely felt by poultry farmers, who see avian influenza as a terrifying new threat to their livelihoods. At the same time, the soaring costs are ultimately passed on to consumers as egg prices have been destabilized.

This year, cases are reportedly spiking earlier than experts predicted, sparking major industry concerns over the scale of culls of infected poultry and how this will affect egg production and prices.

Experts have said the impact of bird flu has resulted in a new seasonality in egg prices in the U.S., related to wild birds’ migratory patterns, and this is set to boost prices in the near future.

Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, told The Independent that “because of the bird flu, we are now seeing seasonality within egg prices”.

“We will see a similar pricing pattern from last year, where we will have higher prices in late fall and winter due to large bird flu outbreaks. Egg prices could double during that time period, and then, as we get closer to summer, when the bird flu is ramping down, we will see a decrease in egg prices.”

He added: “My expectation is that overall egg prices will go up 24 percent in 2026.”

A peak in culls in January this year, with 23 million poultry birds destroyed, led to egg prices reaching their highest, at $6 a dozen, just a few weeks later in March.

Figures out from the USDA this month show egg prices are actually below $1.20 per dozen in October, which the agency said was “their lowest levels in nearly two years amid a combination of rising supply and softer seasonal demand,” highlighting the fluidity in prices.

It is difficult to overstate the seriousness of the outbreak. Since the arrival of bird flu, which originated in intensively farmed poultry in China, over 175 million poultry birds in the U.S. have been culled or died as a result of the disease, as of summer 2025. Similarly, massive culls have also taken place across Europe.

The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said: “To provide context on the overall size of the U.S. poultry flock, there are more than 378.5 million egg-laying chickens in the United States. In 2023, more than 9.4 billion broiler chickens and 218 million turkeys were processed in the United States.

APHIS also said “detections are higher in the fall and spring, because we continue to see wild birds spreading [the] virus as they migrate to their seasonal homes.”

But the problem is no longer limited to birds. On 25 March last year, there was an “unexpected” development in the U.S. in which bird flu was found in Dairy Cattle.

This was the first time bird flu was detected in cattle, and the earliest known spread of the virus in an herbivorous mammal. Since that initial case, more than 900 herds across 17 U.S. states have been confirmed as affected.

Symptoms are usually mild according to the UK’s RSPB, which has been tracking the impacts of bird flu. “Infected cattle generally show mild symptoms, which can be missed, allowing spread from farm to farm through movement of undetected infected animals,” they said.

This year, bird flu was detected in sheep in England for the first time.

New transmissions to other species have also occurred in recent years, with devastating impacts. On one beach in Argentina, experts described a “horror scene”, in which an estimated 18,000 baby elephant seals had died of the disease, and in the same place, infected birds were “falling out of the sky dead”.

“The impact has already been massive,” said Dr Amandine Gamble, assistant professor at the Department of Public & Ecosystem Health at Cornell University.

She told The Independent: “Some species are being pushed close to extinction. We estimated we might have lost close to 80% of great skuas – a scavenging bird found in the north.

“In mammals, the impact on seals, in Argentina but also in South Georgia in Subantarctica, has been particularly dramatic, probably because of their lifestyle: they gather in big dense colonies of thousands of individuals during the breeding season, in which the virus can likely spread very quickly.”

She added: “The effect of the virus on those population is going to be felt for a very long time. Such massive die offs have consequences on whole ecosystems.”

Humans have already been infected by the disease, with 67 cases detected in the U.S. in 2024 – mostly poultry workers. However, there has yet to be any human-to-human transmission, which is the condition needed to spark a contagious disease in humans.

Dr Jennifer B Nuzzo, a professor of epidemiology at Brown University, told The Independent: “The top worry right now is that people and animals who get bird flu may experience severe illness. Though the humans and cows who’ve been infected in the US have largely recovered, [the disease] continues to kill animals and people in other countries at shockingly high levels.

“Why that is not happening in the US is not well understood. I’ve seen nothing to make me worry less about the potential of this virus to kill.

She said she was worried the virus could “mutate or recombine with another flu virus to develop new traits that could spark a pandemic”.

“Right now, H5N1 is still largely a bird virus that occasionally infects people who are exposed to the virus. If H5N1 becomes capable of infecting people more easily and, crucially, capable of spreading easily between people it will trigger a new pandemic.”