Anger at a spiralling economy and decades of authoritarian rule in Iran has exploded onto the streets of major cities across the country.
For two weeks, in massive nationwide rallies, protesters have called for regime change, chanting “death to the dictator”, and in some quarters even calling for a return to the monarchy that was toppled in the 1979 revolution which ushered in the current Islamic Republic.
The Iranian government, still reeling from a disastrous 12-day war with Israeli and US forces last year, has met the protests with a bloody crackdown. An official told Reuters as many as 2,000 people could have been killed. More than 10,000 arrested. And a nationwide communications blackout is still largely in place.
Donald Trump has threatened military action and sanctions but also said the Iranian government has reached out to negotiate. The regime insists it is in control and has warned it will hit Israeli and US targets in the region hard if attacked.
For the first time, Iranian experts are saying this is the gravest existential threat to Iran’s clerical rulers. So what could happen?
The worst-case scenario: a bloodier crackdown and no change
The protests have been met with extreme violence. The few eyewitness accounts that civilians have managed to get out via satellite connections describe the authorities opening fire on rallies. Recently, shocking videos have emerged of hundreds of bodies littering a forensic facility in south Tehran. The government blames the death toll on riots and “domestic terrorists”.
The fear is that protests could fizzle out amid a growing crackdown and mass arrests, especially if there is no external intervention challenging the all powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other armed wings of the state.
As Negar Mortazavi, host of Iran podcast, and senior fellow of US-based Center for International Policy points out, while the regime is the “underdog” right now, especially after last year’s bombardment by Israel, it still retains a strong central control.
“Yes, they have a legitimacy crisis. Yes, people come to the streets in protest once every couple of years, but they have never been able to pose an existential crisis to the regime… The regime has a monopoly on arms, power and violence.”
The protesters have been largely non-violent.
And aside from small armed factions such as Kurdish and Baloch separatist movements, there are no rebel armies in Iran positioned to take on the establishment, as seen in Syria or Libya.
The fear is that the crackdown would continue with further arrests, torture and killings.
The most uncertain outcome: Trump bombs Iran, his new sanctions bite and then what?
