Future warfare unveiled: Real-time intel, AI & stealth tech define tomorrow’s battles

New Delhi: Landmark military operations in the first two months of this year have provided a glimpse into the future of warfare, with access to real time and actionable intelligence, deployment of stealthy, superior conventional weapons and control over the information space determining success.

The daring, risky Operation Absolute Resolve in January to capture incumbent Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, with the physical presence of special forces and use of disabling electronic warfare weapons, is different from the joint strikes on Iran and the punishing blow to take out its leadership, but both point to a clear trend: future battles and regime control attempts will no longer require long-drawn conventional operations. Access to next generation technologies will determine the winner. The stark example of Russia — which botched a regime change attempt in Ukraine, with the annihilation of its special forces at Kiev in Feb 2022, only to be drawn into a long drawn war that has stretched over the past four years — also showcases that military forces that have not adapted and modernised will get bogged down in expensive, high casualty campaigns.

The Generation Change

While information on the devastating strikes in Iran is still coming in, it is clear that there is a generational gap in the weapons used by opposing forces — Iranian air defence systems were more or less obsolete against new-age stealth aircraft and long-range missile systems that have long been in service with the US and its closest allies. The operation revealed that the US has upped the game with modifications to its existing missile arsenal that make them even more difficult to detect, rendering Russian origin S 300/400 air defence systems useless. The new ‘Black Tomahawk Cruise Missile’, seen firing from US warships, seems to be a new version, even more capable of beating enemy radars.

Some images also show the missile with a possible forward swept wings design, which could make it even harder to detect. Videos emerging from Iraq reveal that a horde of these missiles (over a dozen) flew at extremely low altitude before homing in their targets in Iran. In Venezuela too, air defence systems failed to perform as US Special Forces used helicopters to enter the Presidential residence to capture Maduro.

Cost Matters

With the cost of war being a factor, US forces are believed to have used the Army Tactical Missile System to disable Iranian defences. Capable of being fired from the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, the missiles can hit targets at a range of 300 km and are relatively low cost when compared to, say, a Brahmos. The Iran operations are also possibly the first time the US forces have mass used long range loitering munitions. On the other hand, US and Israeli forces have been forced to bear the rather heavy cost of missile defence systems to defend hundreds of Iranian launches that have targeted bases throughout the region. However, expensive investments into accurate interception systems like the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence), the Arrow series and David’s Sling have paid dividends, protecting key locations from devastating damage.

Intel over IntentThe biggest takeaway from the two military actions of this year has been that real-time intelligence is key to the success of an operation and modern tools have given advanced nations access to frighteningly accurate information. While moles and intelligence assets in both Venezuela and Iran played a part, the ability of the US (and Israel) to cross verify and determine the location and movements of adversary leadership made the difference between a short, swift success and a long drawn battle of cat and mouse.

The advent of AI in all aspects of warfare is here but, for now, it remains most useful in the critical areas of making sense of the plethora of intelligence being gathered by modern states — from electronic intercepts to satellite data, drone imagery and ground reports. The US already has hundreds of intelligence gathering satellites, with thousands more being planned that will make real time monitoring of virtually all areas of interest a possibility. The closest nation to the US in terms of space capabilities is China, which has the fastest growing constellation of spy satellites.Venezuela and Iran underline that even major powers without matching investments in stealth weapons, real time intel and low cost munitions will face challenges in the next generation of conflicts.