The Strait of Hormuz has again become the focal point of rising tensions involving Iran, the US and Israel, with energy markets reacting sharply to the prospect of disruption along one of the world’s most important maritime routes.
Iran temporarily restricted sections of the strait during live-fire exercises last Tuesday, describing the move as a safety measure. It was a rare suspension of activity and came amid heightened friction with the US following warnings from president Donald Trump that military action could be taken over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
The world’s largest warship, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford, also headed to the Middle East as part of the biggest US military build-up since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. It contains two shipping lanes, each nearly two miles wide and separated by a buffer zone, and is transited by about 3,000 vessels each month.
Bridget Payne, head of oil and gas forecasting at Oxford Economics in the UK, says the strait remains “one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints”.
“Around a quarter of seaborne oil and a fifth of global LNG shipments pass through it, mainly from Gulf producers to Asia, and most Gulf suppliers have no alternative sea route for exports,” she tells The Independent.
Payne says Saudi Arabia and the UAE can bypass the strait via pipelines, “but together they can reroute only about three million barrels a day of crude oil”. Roughly five times that volume typically transits the strait.
“The LNG risk is even more acute,” she says. “Qatar is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, and all of its LNG exports pass through Hormuz with no alternative route. Any disruption would tighten supply quickly, both in Asia and more broadly as buyers compete for available cargoes.”
This danger has prompted several countries, including China, to call for de-escalation.
“The Persian Gulf and nearby waters are an important route for international trade in goods and energy,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said.
“Keeping the region safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community.”
Beijing, he added, stood “ready to step up communication with Iran and other relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role for a de-escalation”.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio, meanwhile, warned that closing the strait would be “another terrible mistake” on Iran’s part.
“It’s economic suicide it they do it and we retain options to deal with that,” he said. “It would be a massive escalation that would merit a response.”
