How Trump can bring Iran’s Ayatollah to heel: Military options open to the ‘beautiful armada’ – from strategic strikes to taking out Supreme Leader

Donald Trump has, in recent weeks, threatened potential intervention in Iran in the wake of deadly nationwide protests that have killed thousands. 

But tensions between the US and Iran spiked on Wednesday after Trump warned that a ‘massive armada’ is ready to strike if the Islamic Republic does not make a deal on nuclear weapons. 

A US carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln has been moving west from the South China Sea to the Persian Gulf, raising fears that a military strike on Iran is imminent. 

As the aircraft carrier nears the region, experts have been weighing up the options that Trump has to intervene in Iran. 

One option for Trump is to carry out a limited strike restricted solely to Iran’s nuclear program and research facilities. 

Director of the Iran Strategy Project Nate Swanson says Trump could be planning to strike conventional targets, such as Iran’s nuclear or missile programme. 

While these strikes could do little to help activists protesting against the Iranian regime, Swanson says, ‘it will ensure that nobody can accuse the president of drawing “red lines” and then ignoring them.’ 

Trump had previously threatened military action if Iran continued to kill peaceful protesters or carried out mass executions of those detained, telling demonstrators that ‘help is on its way.’

The president later backtracked after receiving unconfirmed assurances that Iranian authorities would no longer execute detained protesters. 

Shashank Joshi, The Economist’s defence editor, argues that a limited attack would also ‘reduce the risk of dragging America into a wider conflict,’ but notes that it would do little to ‘weaken the regime.’

Joshi suggests Trump could be considering a broader attack on Iran, which might target the regime’s security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who have been cracking down on protesters.

A wider, more strategic attack on Iran could also include economic targets, Swanson argues. 

During confrontations between Iran and Israel last year, there were fears that Israel might attack Iranian economic targets, such as oil export terminals and critical natural gas infrastructure. 

Such an operation would be ‘risky’ and could have an impact on energy markets, Swamson says, but it would ‘get the attention of a government that is teetering on the brink of economic collapse.’

Trump’s final option would be striking the regime itself, including its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

Removing him would create an ‘unprecedented power vacuum,’ Swanson says, making it impossible to predict what would happen to Iranians in the aftermath. 

While protesters and observers around the world have been calling for the toppling of the Iranian regime, some officials believe that Iran, which had its military leadership ravaged by Israeli forces last year, has now improved its succession protocols and would ensure that a new leader would be able to step into any power vacuum. 

Dialogue over Trump’s potential options in Iran comes after the president issued an ominous warning to the Islamic Republic on Wednesday. 

Writing on Truth Social today, Trump said: ‘A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela.

‘Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfil its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully, Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties.

‘Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was ‘Operation Midnight Hammer,’ a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again.’

In response, Iran’s mission to the UN said Tehran ‘stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests’, but if provoked, ‘IT WILL DEFEND ITSELF AND RESPOND LIKE NEVER BEFORE’. 

Trump has repeatedly threatened to launch a major military operation against Iran over its treatment of its civilians amid the civil uprising that began last month.

There were claims that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s forces had slaughtered at least 30,000 people, following the start of mass protests across the country in late December that have since apparently been quelled.

The United States Navy’s Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group entered the Central Command’s zone of responsibility on Monday, after being redirected from operations in the Indo-Pacific, providing America with the ability to respond to the crisis.

The flagship of Carrier Strike Group 3, the Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), was escorted by the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Frank E Petersen, Jr (DDG-121), USS Spruance (DDG-111) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112).

Ambrey, a private security firm, issued a notice on Tuesday saying it assessed that the US ‘has positioned sufficient military capability to conduct kinetic operations against Iran while maintaining the ability to defend itself and regional allies from reciprocal action’.

‘Supporting or avenging Iranian protesters in punitive strikes is assessed as insufficient justification for sustained military conflict,’ Ambrey wrote.

But the pressure on its economy may spark new unrest as everyday goods slowly go out of reach of its people, particularly if Trump chooses to attack.

The arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and guided missile destroyers accompanying it provides the US the ability to strike Iran, particularly as Gulf Arab states have signalled they want to stay out of any attack despite hosting American military personnel.

Two Iranian-backed militias in the Mideast have signalled their willingness to launch new attacks, likely trying to back Iran after Trump threatened military action over the killing of peaceful protesters or Tehran launching mass executions in the wake of the demonstrations.

Tehran and Washington may still reach a deal, but Trump has previously called on the regime to agree to terms it has baulked at – including giving up its nuclear enrichment entirely, relinquishing its long-range missiles, and ending support for armed groups in the region.

The US president has earlier said Tehran’s nuclear programme was ‘obliterated’ in the strikes last June that hit three facilities across the country.

Earlier in January, Trump said Iranian officials had reached out to restart negotiations with Washington that were suspended after the June attacks.

But signs have emerged that the regime could resume its nuclear programme if it wanted; the director of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said in an interview last week that Iran retains its stockpile of highly-enriched uranium.

In recent weeks, Trump has gone back and forth on whether the US should strike Iran again. He previously backtracked on plans to attack after he claimed the regime had pledged not to execute people detained for taking part in anti-government demonstrations.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Wednesday that the Iranian government’s ‘days are numbered’ as Trump renewed threats of intervention.

‘A regime that can only hold onto power through sheer violence and terror against its own population: its days are numbered,’ Merz said at a press conference alongside Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan.

‘It could be a matter of weeks but this regime has no legitimacy to govern the country,’ Merz added.

A reported death toll in the thousands during recent demonstrations ‘shows that the mullahs’ regime can apparently only cling to power through sheer terror’, the chancellor said.

Merz also threw his weight behind Italy’s push to have the European Union designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organisation.

‘I very much regret that there are still one or two countries in the European Union that are not yet prepared’ to support such a designation, Merz said.

In addition to the carrier and warships, the Pentagon is also moving fighter jets and air-defence systems to the Middle East.

The US has additional F-35C and F-18 jet fighters that can strike enemy targets, as well as EA-18 Growler electronic-warfare planes that can jam defences.

It has also deployed F-15E jet fighters to a base in Jordan, and it is transferring Patriot and THAAD air defences into the region to help defend American installations and US partners from Iranian counterattacks, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Over the weekend, the US military announced that it would carry out an exercise in the region ‘to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower’.

‘It seems to me that every time Trump has directed this kind of military buildup, he has acted on it,’ Dana Stroul, former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East during the Biden administration, told the newspaper.

‘With the threats of tariffs and other kinds of threats he’s made, there’s this whole chatter about Trump [backing down]. When it comes to the military instrument, he has not chickened out. He has been pretty consistent.’

As a ‘precautionary measure’ amid a spike in tensions in the region, Air India has stopped flights over Iranian airspace, rerouting its planes via Iraq, according to reports.

The Iranian regime unveiled a new mural on a giant billboard in Tehran’s Enghelab Square on Sunday, depicting an aircraft carrier with damaged and exploding fighter planes on its flight deck.

The deck is covered with bodies and streaked with blood, which trails into the water and forms stripes reminiscent of the American flag.

A slogan – warning the US to not attempt a military strike on the country – is emblazoned across one corner: ‘If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind.’

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency has said that at least 6,221 were dead amid Iran’s ongoing protest crackdown, including at least 5,858 demonstrators, 214 government-affiliated forces, 100 children and 49 civilians who weren’t demonstrating.

The crackdown has seen over 42,300 arrests, it added.

However, Time magazine on Sunday cited two senior Iranian health ministry officials saying at least 30,000 people had been killed, while The Guardian reported a similar figure, adding that a large number of people had disappeared.

Verification is hampered by a near-total internet shutdown now in its fourth week, as well as attempts by the regime to conceal the number of total casualties by pushing for fast, mass burials.

Across Iran, corpses in morgues and cemeteries are piling up and overwhelming hospitals and forensic units, which have been forced to turn trucks filled with bodies away.

‘From a medical standpoint, the injuries we observed demonstrate a brutality without limit – both in scale and in method,’ an anonymous doctor in Iran told The Guardian.

He and his wife have begun treating patients at a location outside Tehran’s government hospital system after reports that young people were avoiding doctors, fearful that registering as trauma patients would lead to their identification and arrest.

‘I am on the verge of a psychological collapse. They’ve mass murdered people. No one can imagine … I saw just blood, blood and blood,’ another anonymous medic said.

Iran’s government has put the death toll at a far lower 3,117, saying 2,427 were civilians and security forces, and labelled the rest ‘terrorists’.

In the past, Iran’s theocracy has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.

That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest there in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.