India-Pakistan tensions may go ballistic as Islamabad prepares to test-fire surface-to-surface ballistic missiles
Another official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “The planned missile test, under such volatile conditions, is a blatant provocation and a desperate attempt to whip up tensions with India.”
Gunfire, missiles and political rhetoric
The proposed missile test is just the latest in a series of aggressive manoeuvres from Pakistan, Indian officials say. Over the past ten days, Pakistan has issued four NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen), signalling missile test intentions. So far, none of those notifications have resulted in actual launches.
The first NOTAM came on April 23, just a day after the Pahalgam attack. It gave less than 24 hours’ notice but no missile was fired. Similar notifications followed on April 26–27 and again from April 30 to May 2, with locations alarmingly close to India’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Yet again, no missiles were launched.
Despite the lack of follow-through, officials in New Delhi believe the continued warnings are intended to intimidate. “This is not normal. It is calculated psychological coercion,” a senior Indian defence source said.
Ceasefire under fire, literally
Since January, Pakistani troops have violated the February 2021 ceasefire agreement around 15 times. But it was after April 22 that the shelling intensified. On Wednesday alone, Pakistani troops targeted Indian positions along both the Line of Control and the international border.Unlike earlier incidents, which were localised and resolved through communication channels, the latest attacks have taken place across multiple sectors and with rising frequency.
The Indian military has been ordered to respond firmly. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the armed forces “complete operational freedom” to decide how, when, and where to respond. He also vowed a “crushing blow to terrorism”.
Diplomatic fallout deepens
India has taken a raft of measures since the Pahalgam attack. These include suspending visas for Pakistani nationals, ordering a reduction in staff at the Pakistani High Commission, closing the Attari land border, and moving to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty.
Pakistan, on its part, has pushed back. It has shut down its airspace to Indian carriers, halted trade—including via third countries—and called for an independent probe into the Pahalgam incident.
At a press briefing on Wednesday, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said, “We will not resort to any escalatory action but will respond very strongly to any such move by India.”
Beyond missile threats, Pakistan has also stepped up military exercises in the Arabian Sea. Officials say the combined effect of these moves—ceasefire violations, naval drills, and now a potential ballistic missile test—is part of a broader campaign to challenge India’s restraint.
New Delhi is taking these signals seriously. For many in India’s defence establishment, the missile test represents not just a symbolic threat, but a potentially destabilising action in an already volatile theatre.
And in the backdrop, the memory of Pahalgam remains fresh—adding to the sense that this standoff may not cool anytime soon.
(With inputs from ANI)
