ET examines the big shifts in the internal security matrix and how threats from intricate spy rings, launch of the New National Counter terrorism policy, upcoming Census 2027, implementation of new criminal laws, cyber security, gangster-organised crime nexus, and Pro-Khalistan Elements active abroad will shape the security landscape of 2026.
THE ENEMY WITHIN
There has been an increased effort by Pakistan’s ISI to gather information critical to India’s national security by establishing new and activating established espionage networks in India, claim intelligence officials. After the Pahalgam attack, the geopolitical situation in India has seen rising tensions with Pakistan. The days following the attack witnessed military conflict between the two countries, namely Operation Sindoor.
Pakistan’s ISI has established an espionage network in India by exploiting the financial hardships, ideological leanings and personal vulnerabilities of Indian citizens and impersonating as Indian entities. Honeytrapping remains a key tactic, with operatives leveraging personal or intimate relationships to coerce targets into sharing sensitive intelligence. Recruits are tasked with gathering critical information on troop movements, strategic sites and border deployments, with payments routed through hawala channels and encrypted apps to maintain secrecy, according to intelligence agencies.
The recent developments have pointed to several suspects from different states across India being connected with Pakistan intelligence officers (PIOs) through encrypted communication platforms. Some PIOs have been found to be working in close association with terrorist groups in Pakistan, officials told ET.
It may be recalled that Jyoti Rani, alias Jyoti Malhotra, a YouTuber and a resident of Hisar in Haryana, was arrested on May 17, 2025, on charges of espionage. She was in regular communication with Ehsan-ur-Rahim, alias Danish, an official at Pak high commission. Malhotra had visited Pakistan in September 2022, April 2024 and March 2025. Danish introduced her to other PIOs during her visits to Pakistan. Danish was declared persona non grata and expelled on May 13, 2025, for being involved in espionage activities.
As security agencies began a crackdown on these espionage ring, Nauman Ilahi, a resident of Kairana, Uttar Pradesh, and working as a security guard in a factory in Panipat, Haryana, was arrested by Haryana Police on May 16, 2025, for sharing information to PIOs for the past two years. A search of his residence led to the seizure of multiple passports and suspicious documents. Similarly, Devinder Singh, a resident of Kaithal, Haryana, was arrested by Haryana Police on May 16, 2025. In Nov 2024, Devinder visited Pakistan via the Kartarpur Corridor. He established contacts with PIOs during his visit and logistics of his stay were arranged by PIOs. Thereafter, Devinder shared sensitive information, including photos of Patiala Military Cantonment, with PIOs.
Another spy ring was unearthed in May 2025 by Rajasthan Police when Maulvi Qasim was arrested with the help of central agencies. He reportedly received training in Lahore and returned to India from Pakistan a week before the Pahalgam attack. Reportedly, Qasim received about 2 lakh Pakistani Rupees in different instalments from Pakistan in exchange for providing intelligence.
The investigation led to the arrest of Maulvi Kasim’s brother Asim by Delhi Police from Deeg in Rajasthan on June 1, 2025, for allegedly supplying Indian SIM cards to PIOs and other logistics for anti-national activities. Key members of a “white-collar” terror module involved in the Red Fort attack were given logistical support and shelter by locals in Faridabad. Dr Umar Nabi, who was driving the car that exploded near Red Fort, was given shelter by Soyab, a native of Dhauj in Faridabad. Soyab, as per NIA, helped Nabi to rent a room in Hidayat Colony in Nuh.
COUNTER TERRORISM POLICY
The Ministry of Home Affairs recently launched the National Counter Terrorism Policy. National Investigation Agency has created a common ATS structure and has sent it to state police forces. The common ATS structure ensures uniform preparation at every level and is extremely important, and all director generals of police should implement it, Union home minister Amit Shah had emphasised at a recent conference.
MANIPUR
The ethnic strife that started in May 2023 continues to remain a challenge for the central government as more than 57,000 displaced people lodged in relief camps are yet to return to their original homes. It is the third year of violence and internally displaced people of Manipur are staring at another harsh winter. On December 16, tension escalated in the peripheral areas of Manipur’s Bishnupur district following firing by suspected militants. The situation is under control, but tense. Helicopters and drones have been deployed to help security forces monitor the situation and in evacuations.
CENSUS 2027
The long-delayed Census is expected to start soon, with census commissioners holding consultation with stakeholders. The census would update the National Population Register, caste data, among others. The Registrar General of India has earlier drawn up a list of 30 parameters for citizens. They include the number of persons residing in a household, whether the head of a household is a woman, whether they have a telephone, internet connection, mobile or smartphone, bicycle, scooter or motorcycle and whether they own a car, jeep or a van, among others.
LEFT-WING EXTREMISTS
The clarion call given by Shah to end the Maoist menace by March 2026 will be keenly watched, with security forces ramping up offensive. A total of 256 Maoists, 23 security personnel and 46 civilians were killed in 2025, as per Bastar Police. The major setback for the banned CPI (Maoist) came this November when their most feared commander Madvi Hidma was killed in an encounter in Andhra Pradesh.
Till December 21, as many as 1,562 Maoist cadres including central committee members T Vasudeva Rao, alias Rupesh, and politburo member Mallojula Venugopal Rao, alias Sonu Dada, surrendered. Eleven CC members including general secretary Nambala Keshava Rao, alias Basava Raju, and five Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee members were eliminated in encounters.
Over the last decade, Maoism has been curbed, resulting in 73% reduction in security personnel casualties and a 70% decline in civilian deaths compared to the previous decade, as per MHA data. During 2025, MHA classified Maoist-affected districts as 11 from 18 earlier. Only three — Bijapur, Sukma and Narayanpur in Chhattisgarh — are now categorised as “most affected districts”.
ORGANISED GANGS/PKEs
The extortion racket involving organised gangs led by jailed gangster Lawrence Bishnoi, operating across states and countries, has become a new challenge for law enforcement agencies. The group claimed murder of NCP leader Baba Siddique and has been openly sending death threats to actor Salman Khan while demanding extortion money from businessmen, liquor traders and nightclub operators in India.
This gang has been aided by Pro-Khalistan Elements in foreign countries. NIA, in its chargesheets, has noted that the gangster-PKE nexus is akin to the scenario that existed in Mumbai in the early ’90s. The two main gangs at loggerhead now are Lawrence Bishnoi and Kaushal Chaudhary, like the rivalries of underworld dons Dawood and the now jailed Chhota Rajan. Over 50 members of these syndicates have been arrested. But foreign handlers in Canada, the US, Australia, Dubai and the UK continue to remain at large.
NORTH EAST
Infrastructure development along the India-China border and implementation of phase 3 of Indo-China border roads and implementation of vibrant village programme will remain a challenge for MHA. China has recently approved the construction of the world’s largest dam, costing $137 billion, on the Brahmaputra in Tibet close to the Indian border, raising concerns.
According to MHA data, there is a sharp decline of 80% in militancy-related violence and 89% civilian deaths since 2014. More than 6,000 militants have surrendered since 2014. The Centre has signed several accords with insurgent groups over the past few years.
