Israel’s stated aim is the destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons – but the real goal is regime change in Tehran
Israel’s campaign to cripple Iran’s nuclear programme and decapitate its military with bombardments across the west of the country is part of a comprehensive plan to remove the existential threat Iran posed to the Jewish State. The “second-order effect” may be no less important – regime change.
Israel’s been planning this for years. It has shaped the battlefield with assassinations of nuclear scientists, the destruction of Iranian regional proxy militias, bombing of its missile facilities last year.
This year, it has slipped Mossad intelligence agency commandos into the country where they’ve shown Ukrainian levels of innovation and used drones to snuff out Iran’s air defences and target missile launch sites.
Two more top leaders of the Iranian forces have been slain in meticulously targeted strikes.
Politicians, though, have not yet appeared on the Israeli kill lists. That is deliberate. Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly tried to appeal to the Iranian people to rise against the Islamic regime that has ruled over them since 1979.
On Friday, as Israel’s first waves of 200 aircraft were conducting their first sorties against Iran he broadcast an appeal directly to the Iranian people.
“Israel’s fight is not against the Iranian people. Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses and impoverishes you,” Netanyahu said.
“The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime,” he added. “This is your opportunity to stand up and let your voices be heard.”
Iran’s regime is oppressive. It hangs poets and journalists, gasses school girls for protesting against being forced to wear head scarves and takes foreigners hostage. It has backed murderous campaigns by Hamas, created the militia-cum-mafia that is modern Hezbollah, and used the Houthis of Yemen to destabilise world trade through the Red Sea.
These are “military” operations, and so, for now, Israel is focusing its efforts on Iran’s military officers and capabilities. The message from Israel, though, to politicians and surviving soldiers is that the smart money lies in removing the mullahs who have ruled Iran before Israel kills them, or another revolution sweeps every element of the current system away.
“Pandora’s box has been cast wide open with Israel’s sweeping overnight air campaign against Iranian targets — an escalation that risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East. By targeting senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership and nuclear infrastructure deep inside Iranian territory, Israel has signalled a willingness to confront Tehran at a scale and depth previously unseen,” said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow, Middle East security, at the Royal United Services Institute.
The exiled son of Iran’s last shah, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, blamed the Israeli attacks on Iran’s supreme leader, ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying it was “Khamenei’s war, not Iran’s.”
In a statement shared online, Pahlavi appealed directly to Iran’s military, police, and intelligence personnel, urging them to “separate yourselves from this corrupt and incompetent leadership” and “join the people.” He said that the Islamic Republic’s leadership “values neither your lives nor the future of Iran… The solution is the overthrow of the Islamic Republic through street protests and nationwide strikes,” he said.
Iran has fired 200 ballistic missiles in four waves against Israel in its first round of retaliation. Most have been shot down, but at least three Israelis have been killed by the counterattacks.
