Donald Trump has sent thousands of US soldiers to the Middle East, signalling that a ground invasion of a small island in the Persian Gulf remains on the table even as he touts success in supposed talks to end the war.
The president told the Financial Times that he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and might still use American troops to seize the tiny Kharg Island, the country’s main oil exporting terminal.
Kharg Island handles some 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports, and taking it would give the US the ability to disrupt Iran’s energy trade and place enormous pressure on the economy.
The island sits 16 miles from the coast in the northern end of the Gulf and just northwest of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important shipping route that Iran has effectively closed to pile pressure on the US.
While US forces could likely seize Kharg Island quite quickly, analysts say that an occupation is more likely to expand and prolong the war than it is to deliver a decisive victory or leverage in negotiations.
Iran has fortified the island with additional surface-to-air missiles and laid traps including anti-personnel and anti-armour mines in the waters surrounding it, CNN reported, citing people familiar with US intelligence.
A former commander of the US Central Command, Joseph Votel, told TWZ.com last week that while only 800 to 1,000 troops would be needed on Kharg Island, they would require logistical backup that would need protection as well.
Votel said that US troops would be very vulnerable and doubted that taking the island would provide any particular tactical advantage. It would be “kind of an odd thing to do … But we could certainly do it if we had to,” he said.
Troops would face traps laid by Iran
Troops already navigating traps would also likely have to contend with an onslaught of missiles and drones. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday the country is ready and waiting for the arrival of US ground troops “to set them on fire”.
“The enemy signals negotiation in public, while in secret it plots a ground attack,” he said in a message broadcast on Iranian state media. Iran has accused Trump of stalling with talk of negotiations to rush troops to the region for an invasion.
Gulf allies have warned the administration not to put troops on the ground in Iran, saying it could trigger more retaliation from Tehran, possibly against their energy and civilian infrastructure, a senior Gulf official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
The White House official said last week that Trump had made clear “he has no plans to send ground troops anywhere at this time,” but added that he always keeps all options on the table.
In response to questions about boots on the ground, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said: “It’s the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the commander in chief maximum optionality.”
“Trump traffics in contradictory signals,” said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “He is a one-man ‘fog of war’ messaging machine to keep opponents off-balance.”
The President has previously boasted that US strikes in mid-March had “obliterated” Iranian military outposts on the island, but left its oil infrastructure alone for now.
Seizing island ‘would cut off Iran’s oil lifeline’
US administration officials said that discussions on seizing the Kharg Island have taken place, according to Axios. The land, which is smaller than the city of Westminster in London, could choke off Iran’s economy and leave a devastating impact for years to come.
“Seizing the island would cut off Iran’s oil lifeline, which is crucial for the regime,” Petras Katinas, research fellow in climate, energy and defence in the Europe office of the Royal United Services Institute, told The Telegraph.
“Of course, with shipping via the Strait of Hormuz now stopped, they cannot sell oil anyway, but looking ahead, seizure would give the US leverage during negotiations, no matter which regime is in power after the military operation ends.”
Shipping through the Strait has largely come to a halt since the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) took “complete control” of the major waterway.
Global supply chains have been severely affected and experts have warned of a devastating economic impact across the world if it continues.
Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Thursday before dropping, and the IRGC warned that it could reach $200 if hostilities escalate.
“Should he take Kharg, rather than destroy it, he can not only ensure the regime can never again pay the salaries of its bureaucrats and soldiers,” former Pentagon official Michael Rubin wrote in an article for the American Enterprise Institute in January this year, before Trump’s assault.
“But also, in the future after regime change, he can ensure that the new Iranian regime can finance its own rebuilding.
“The IRGC, of course, could target Kharg with ballistic missiles, but that would sign their death warrant. Not only would Trump respond in kind, but such action would end Iranian oil exports for months to come, again leaving salaries unpaid.”
Island ‘could be used as bargaining chip’ in talks
Other analysts have suggested the island could be used as a bargaining chip as oil exports make up nearly 40 per cent of Iran’s government budget.
However, it would make American and Israeli troops vulnerable to attacks by Iranian forces.
“If President Trump were to decide to seize this pivotal hub, it would deal a significant blow to the Iranian regime, as it would deprive them of a critical source of revenue,” oil analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC.
“Such a move would be reminiscent of the US intervention in Venezuela at the beginning of the year, when it effectively took control of the country’s oil sector.”
The island was previously attacked by Saddam Hussein in 1984, sparking the oil tanker war in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Iraq.
But this isn’t the first time Kharg appears to have been in Trump’s sightline. He previously made a throwaway remark about the island nearly 40 years ago while promoting his book The Art of the Deal in an interview with The Guardian.
“They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools,” he said of Iran in 1988. “One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.”
Capturing island ‘would send markets into tailspin’
Neil Quilliam, an energy policy and foreign affairs analyst at Chatham House, told The Independent that while it is “unlikely” Trump would take over the territory, any attempt would “likely send the markets into a tailspin”.
It could also block any future resolution between the countries, leading to an endless standoff.
“The US would effectively control Iran’s major export terminal, but the Iranian leadership would remain in control of the country’s production so there would be a standoff,” he said. It could also be a “major cause for concern” for Gulf countries, setting a dangerous precedent.
“It is Iran’s Achilles heel in this war, but fighting for and occupying Kharg could cause irreparable damage to the terminal and hurt any successor regime’s chances of managing the economy,” he continued. “Previous presidents have steered away from Kharg, understanding its strategic importance to global oil markets.”
