Kristi Noem’s odds of being the first Trump cabinet member to get fired have surged among political bettors after her attempts to defend the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minnesota.
On both Polymarket and Kalshi, two popular ‘prediction market’ sites, the Homeland Security secretary now leads the pack for the question “Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?”
Having been tipped at only 12 percent probability on January 21, Noem had soared to 40 percent on Kalshi and 43 percent on Polymarket as of Monday afternoon.
That put her well ahead of Trump’s embattled attorney general Pam Bondi, who has been criticized across the political spectrum for her handling of the Epstein files, and his labor secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who has reportedly been accused of taking staff to a strip club during an official work trip.
“Kristi Noem has forfeited her right to lead,” said New York’s Democratic governor Kathy Hochul at a press conference Sunday.
“I’m calling on her to resign as Secretary of Homeland Security or Donald Trump to do the right thing and just fire her. And, if not, she must be removed or impeached,” she said.
Alex Jeffrey Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse at a VA hospital, became the sixth person to die during Trump’s massive nationwide immigration crackdown when he was shot dead Saturday morning by federal agents while protesting in Minneapolis.
“An individual approached U.S. Border Patrol officers with a 9mm semi-automatic handgun. The officers attempted to disarm this individual, but the armed suspect reacted violently,” Noem told reporters on Saturday.
“Fearing for his life and for the lives of his fellow officers around him, an agent fired defensive shots.” She further accused Pretti of “assaulting” offices, “wishing to inflict harm on them”, and “brandishing” a firearm.
Videos from the scene contradict that account, showing Pretti with no visible weapon in his hand while federal agents tackled him to the ground. Agents appeared to remove a pistol from his person, before unloading several rounds into him as he was on the ground.
Trump has declined to expressly defend Noem’s words, telling The Wall Street Journal: “We’re looking, we’re reviewing everything and will come out with a determination.”
Meanwhile, DHS on Monday denied reports that Gregory Bovino — the Border Patrol officer who has led Trump’s crackdowns in Chicago and Minneapolis, and whom a federal judge accused of “outright lying” about his agents’ use of force — had been removed from his role.
Trump has so far avoided the rapid turnover in Cabinet positions that held sway during his first term, keeping more or less the same top team in place since last January.
Reports of a coming shake-up in the new year have so far failed to materialize, but that might change if Noem continues to provoke the bipartisan criticism of the past seven days.
Vermont’s Republican governor Phil Scott slammed Pretti’s killing as potentially “murder”, while Louisiana congressman Bill Cassidy called it “incredibly disturbing” and said “the credibility of ICE and DHS are at stake.”
Polymarket and Kalshi are prediction market services that let users bet against each other on whether certain future events will come to pass. U.S. regulators consider them financial trading platforms rather than a gambling platform, which allows it to operate in states that ban online betting.
