Benjamin Netanyahu believes he has finally found a solution for Gaza. Total reoccupation of the 365sqkm of territory and the mass evacuation of its population in a “takeover” that mutilates Israel’s internal democracy and risks placing it near the very top of pariah nations.
This a defining moment that could further divide Europe from America – where Donald Trump is reported to have been briefed in advance on the Gaza plan.
Israel’s military and intelligence establishment know that they’re being marched into a trap set by Hamas but on Netanyahu’s instructions.
Hamas is opposed to a two-state deal that would create a Palestinian state alongside Israel because it wants the Jewish state to vanish. Israel’s further occupation of Gaza guarantees two-states is impossible.
Israel’s prime minister is interested, though, only in the short-term tactical survival of Israel’s prime minister. And he is prepared to risk Israel’s long term survival to ensure it.
He doesn’t care that, as Israel rolls the tanks into Gaza City which is said to be evacuated by October 7 of all civilians, Israel’s claims to be a democracy will be over. Worse still for Israel, given the international condemnation that has followed his forever war decision, is that the Jewish state will inevitably face sanctions by year’s end.
It is difficult to see how it will swerve the outrage Netanyahu will generate given the worldwide collapse in support for Israel’s actions in Gaza so far.
Already Germany, which has been defensive of Netanyahu and Israel’s policies, has moved to ban the sales of any weapons from Germany that could be used in Gaza.
That could affect the export licences for military equipment to Israel worth 485 million euros ($564 million) granted between October 7, 2023 and May 13, 2025.
European economic sanctions and travel bans on Israelis will, or should, come as the killing of Gazans continue. Australia has condemned Netanyahu’s decision, South Africa’s leading the efforts to prosecute Israelis for alleged war crimes.
According to the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, the US provided Israel with $22.8bn (£16.8bn) in military aid in the first year of its Gaza campaign.
“Israel has been the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid since its founding, receiving about $310bn (adjusted for inflation) in total economic and military assistance,” read a November 2024 report by the US Council on Foreign Relations.
In other words, Israel cannot forge ahead with its new plans in Gaza without American money – and weapons.
For now, the US seems prepared to continue to supply both but at the risk of domestic political turmoil. A July Gallup poll found that 60 per cent of Americans now disapprove of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza – and that was before the latest escalation.
