Tensions are escalating between Russia and Azerbaijan, an oil-rich Caspian Sea nation, driven by a series of contentious incidents and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus. Among the immediate flashpoints are the deaths of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia, reportedly rounded up by police in connection with decades-old murder investigations, alongside Baku’s accusation that Moscow was responsible for the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet.
These specific grievances are compounded by Azerbaijan’s deepening ties with Turkey, which coincide with a perceived decline in Russian influence across the volatile region. The strained relationship unfolds as Azerbaijan’s President Ilhan Aliyev, in power since 2003, navigates a complex regional dynamic, a tenure almost as long as Vladimir Putin’s 25-year rule in Russia.
Here is a look at the previously warm relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan and what has happened:
Russia and Azerbaijan developed strong economic and cultural ties after 1993 when Aliyev’s father, Heydar, who also was Azerbaijan’s Soviet-era Communist boss, became president. Like Putin, the younger Aliyev has suppressed political foes and restricted independent media.
Azerbaijan has bought oil and natural gas from Russia to meet internal demand while exporting its own energy riches to the West. Russia also has been the main market for Azerbaijan’s fruit and vegetable exports. It also is a key transport corridor for Russia’s trade with Iran and other partners in the Middle East.
Azerbaijani businessmen control significant assets in construction, real estate, trade and other sectors of the Russian economy.
Russia is home to a sizable Azerbaijani diaspora. A 2021 census listed about a half-million ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Russia, but unofficial estimates put that number as high as 2 million.
Relations with Baku have become increasingly important for the Kremlin since it sent troops into Ukraine in 2022, especially as Turkey has become a key economic partner for Russia as it faced sweeping Western sanctions.
Just before the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an open confrontation erupted between two of its former republics in the South Caucasus — Azerbaijan and its neighbor, Armenia. After years of fighting, Armenian-backed separatists won control of Azerbaijan’s region of Karabakh and nearby territories.
Russia claimed neutrality in the conflict even though it provided economic assistance and supplied weapons to Armenia that hosted its military base. Moscow cosponsored peace talks under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, but they didn’t produce a deal.
In 2020, Azerbaijan’s military, bolstered by weapons supplied by ally Turkey, recaptured broad swaths of territory that were held for nearly three decades by Armenian forces. Russia brokered a truce and deployed about 2,000 peacekeepers to the region.
Azerbaijan reclaimed full control of Karabakh in September 2023 after a lightning military campaign. Russia, busy with its war in Ukraine, didn’t intervene, angering Armenia’s leadership that responded by scaling down its ties with Moscow and bolstering relations with the West.
The victory in Karabakh has fueled Azerbaijan’s ambitions and prompted Aliyev to take a more assertive stand in relations with his neighbors.
On Dec. 25, 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet crashed while on a flight from Baku to Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya. Azerbaijani authorities said the jet was accidentally hit by fire from Russian air defenses, then tried to land in western Kazakhstan when it crashed, killing 38 of 67 people aboard.
