Top Senate Republican dragged into bruising runoff by scandal-scarred Ken Paxton in stunning Texas finish

Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn is headed to a runoff election against Lone Star State Attorney General Ken Paxton, leaving Republicans nervous that the extended, nasty primary could put the seat in play for Democrats this fall. 

Cornyn was leading Paxton in the Republican primary for the US Senate with nearly 70 percent of the vote counted, according to the Associated Press. A third candidate, Congressman Wesley Hunt, who faced attacks for missing a slew of Capitol Hill votes was eliminated from contention with a third-place finish.

But neither of the top two candidates passed the 50 percent threshold necessary on Tuesday night to avoid a 12-week slog that is expected to be bitter and draining for the Republican Party. 

Speaking to a crowd of his supporters Tuesday night, Cornyn stated that ‘Ken Paxton as the nominee would be a dead weight.’

‘Judgement day is coming for Ken Paxton,’ Cornyn said.

The finish was a surprise for Cornyn, whose own campaign predicted he would finish second to Paxton in the first round of voting.

‘Paxton ahead of us within [margin of error] is most likely result,’ texted a Cornyn operative ahead of polls closing on Tuesday.   

Now the question will be whether Paxton or Cornyn can convince President Donald Trump to grant his blessing in a campaign he’s stayed noticeably neutral on so far.  

Speaking to a crowd of his own supporters Tuesday, Paxton invoked his last two state-wide victories that had come on the backs of besting previous runoff victories.

Paxton also invoked Texas Senator Ted Cruz several times in his speech, urging Texans to ‘send a second conservative Senator’ to Washington, DC. Paxton added that Cruz’s own campaign in 2012 was the last time a Texas Senate race went to a runoff.

‘Texas is not for sale,’ Paxton said, referencing Cornyn’s massive spending advantage. 

Cornyn’s campaign spent $69 million – a gigantic amount – compared to just $5 million spent by Paxton’s camp, a warning sign that the incumbent’s healthy cash reserves haven’t been overwhelmingly decisive. Cornyn also benefited from millions more in outside super PAC spending. 

Paxton qualified for the runoff despite being indicted, impeached, and hit with brutal charges of infidelity. 

The Daily Mail exclusively revealed Paxton was secretly seeing a married Christian influencer behind the backs of both their partners — with multiple sources confirming the woman was mother-of-seven Tracy Duhon, 57, also an author.

When asked back then about Duhon being his mistress, Paxton – whose wife filed for divorce on ‘biblical grounds’ last year – did not address the claim but attacked the Daily Mail and vowed to take on the ‘deranged radical Left’ with Trump.

Cornyn released a commercial about the cheating allegations, claiming that ‘crooked Ken Paxton cheated on his wife’ and is ‘wrecking another home, sleeping around with a married mother of seven.’

But Cornyn’s own baggage of choosing to defy Trump appeared to weigh more heavily on voters’ minds.  

In January of 2021, Cornyn did not object to certifying President Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election, ‘based on unproven allegations,’ and in 2023 he signaled that Trump couldn’t win a 2024 general election, noting that Trump’s time had ‘passed him by.’

Trump hasn’t forgotten and stayed on the sidelines, allowing Paxton his opening.  

A pro-Cornyn PAC was accused last summer of manipulating audio from a 2019 Trump rally to make it seem like the president recently endorsed the senator.

In Trump’s 2019 rally footage, the President praises both Cornyn and Senator Ted Cruz for their work delivering on his agenda in Washington.

In the allegedly doctored footage, the pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority appears to have clipped the ‘s’ from the end of Senators, as well as the reference to Cruz during Trump’s rally six years ago.

Paxton has the backing of Turning Point USA’s political arm, whose endorsement ignited a firestorm.

TP Action’s endorsement of Paxton was viewed as a direct assault on the legacy of TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk, who preached Judeo-Christian values and encouraged young conservatives to get married and have children.

Outside of his personal battles, Paxton has also been accused of corruption on several occasions. He was impeached over claims of bribery, abuse of office, and corruption, but later acquitted. He has never been convicted of a crime. 

Since 2019, Cornyn has cast several votes in which he has split with the majority of his GOP colleagues, adding to accusations that he is an RINO, or Republican in name only.

Despite touting a voting record 99 per cent in line with Trump, Cornyn has few friends among Washington’s conservative establishment. 

Heritage Action rates his votes in the current Congressional session at just 35 per cent — barely half his lifetime score of 64 percent. The American Conservative Union tells a similar story: a lifetime score of 87, against a current ranking of 77.

In 2022, Cornyn was one of 15 Republican senators who crossed the aisle to give President Biden a signature legislative win — the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act — under intense public pressure following the Uvalde school shooting in his home state. 

Now these records will be poured over from now until late May, leaving the Republican Party divided.

Many GOP operatives fear that a Paxton victory in May could make the seat vulnerable to the Democrats in November.

It would also mean heavy GOP financial investment to keep a seat in a ruby red state. 

‘If we have to spend money in Texas, then we’re diverting,’ said former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on NBC News, lamenting a prolonged primary campaign. 

The Texas runoff is set for March 26.