Regulated train fares in England may increase by 5.8% next year, based on a measure of inflation announced on Wednesday.
The Office for National Statistics said Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation rose to 4.8% in July.
The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated fare rises in 2026, but this year’s 4.6% hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024.
If that formula is used to set next year’s fare increase, the cost of train travel will jump by 5.8%.
Pressure group Railfuture recently told the PA news agency “it would be outrageous” if fares even rose by as much as 5.5%, with train punctuality in Britain at its lowest level in more than five years.
About 45% of fares on Britain’s railways are regulated by the Westminster, Scottish and Welsh Governments.
They include season tickets on most commuter journeys, some off-peak return tickets on long-distance routes, and flexible tickets for travel around major cities.
The Department for Transport (DfT) said there will be an update on changes to regulated fares later this year.
Operators set rises in unregulated fares, although these are likely to be very close to regulated ticket increases because their decisions are heavily influenced by governments.
Office of Rail and Road figures show trains in Britain reached 66.7% of scheduled stops within a minute of the timetable in the year to July 19.
That is the worst performance since the year to May 30 2020.
Some operators are currently struggling with dry weather.
A lack of moisture in clay soil embankments has disturbed track levels, preventing trains from safely travelling at full speed in parts of south-west and south-east England.
A DfT spokesperson said: “The Transport Secretary has made clear her number one priority is getting the railways back to a place where people can rely on them.
“The Government is putting passengers at the heart of its plans for public ownership and Great British Railways (GBR), delivering the services they deserve and driving growth.
“No decisions have been made on next year’s rail fares but our aim is that prices balance affordability for both passengers and taxpayers.”
The Government is nationalising train operators as their contracts expire.
GBR is an upcoming public sector body that will oversee Britain’s rail infrastructure and train operation.
