Trump claims ‘help is on the way’ for protesters in Iran – but his options for military action are thin
Donald Trump’s threat of military action against Iran in response to a deadly crackdown on protesters has raised fears of another crisis in the Middle East – just seven months after the US bombed the country’s nuclear programme.
US officials are reported to have provided Trump with a wide range of options for intervention, from a propaganda campaign to cyber attacks, new sanctions and long-range missile strikes.
While officials have briefed that an attack could come within days, experts remain sceptical that military action will achieve Trump’s ultimate goal of emboldening protesters and pushing through regime change.
Trump assured Iranians yesterday that “help is on its way” as rights groups increased their tally of protest-linked fatalities to 2,000. But to date, the only decisive action has been to sanction Iran’s trading partners.
Washington has already shown a willingness to take unilateral action in the face of international law through its operation to oust Nicolas Maduro from a fortified stronghold in Venezuela earlier this month. But the buildup of US forces in the Caribbean may have left Trump with fewer options to challenge Tehran than he would have liked.
The Independent looks at which options remain available to Trump – and why they are looking increasingly thin.
Donald Trump warned Iran on 2 January that if authorities killed protesters, the US was “locked and loaded and ready to go”.
But the US finds itself today in a tighter position than it was in last June, when it bombed Iranian nuclear facilities in conjunction with an Israeli air campaign.
Washington sent seven B-2 bombers from Missouri to bomb Iran’s sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Operation Midnight Hammer involved some 125 US military aircraft, a number of decoys in the Pacific and a volley of cruise missiles fired from a submarine.
The US also had six B-2s stationed at Diego Garcia and two Carrier Strike Groups in the region, offering options by air and sea.
However, an initial impact report by the US Defence Intelligence Agency concluded the strikes had likely only set back the nuclear programme by a matter of months. The White House said at the time the assessment was “flat out wrong”.
Since the summer, Trump has spread US naval assets across the world – leaving bases in the Gulf depleted of interceptors to respond to an Iranian response.
US aircraft carriers are now in the Americas and Asia, but not around the Middle East, Europe or Africa. The naval buildup around the Caribbean used to displace Maduro drew in the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group from the Mediterranean at the end of last year.
An administration official told Politico this week that the US was not currently preparing any major moves of troops or assets to the Middle East.
