US-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have resumed this week, as the fourth anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s invasion fast approaches.
Territory remains the key sticking point between the two sides, with delegations meeting in Geneva on Tuesday and Wednesday.
There has been little progress in the talks to date, with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky recently sharing his frustration that his country is “too often” asked to make concessions.
Kyiv, however, may well be emboldened by its recent territorial gains. Advancing some 201 sq km between Wednesday and Sunday, Ukraine’s forces have effectively cancelled out Russia’s gains for the entire month of December, according to an analysis of data from the US-based monitor, the Institute for the Study of War.
Russia’s main effort, meanwhile, will continue to focus on eastern Ukraine, where a ‘fortress belt’ of trenches, bunkers, minefields and barbed wire holds advances to a slow crawl.
Ahead of the fourth anniversary of the war on February 24, Russian advances continue to move at a “footpace” and “do not portend the collapse of the Ukrainian lines”, according to the ISW’s latest assessment.
Russian forces claimed 141 sq km in the week commencing 25 January, but gains fell to just 74 sq km in the week commencing 8 February.
Ukrainian liberation efforts may not wield the same momentum as in the summer 2023 counteroffensive, but steady progress through November and December has helped decrease sum Russian gains in recent weeks.
Emil Kastehelmi, military analyst with Finland-based open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group, told The Independent that the latest figures may not represent a strategic shift, but could offer some political relief in talks.
“The Ukrainians have managed to liberate various villages in the Zaporizhzhia and the Dnipropetrovsk oblasts,” he said. “This section of the front is of less importance than when we look at what’s operationally or strategically important.”
“It’s clear that they have now advanced various kilometres in various places that and they have taken the initiative locally. But there are a lot of different ways to paint this.”
According to Ukrainian milblogger Konstantin Mashovets, Ukraine by Sunday had pushed Russian forces from the villages of Ternuvate and Kosivtseve, crossed the Haichur River, liberated Dobropillya and cut through the Russian lines to the east.
Russian troops managed advances in the direction of Novopokrovka-Mala Tokmachka, Kamyanske-Lukyanivske, Plavnia-Primorske and Stepove-Pavlovka, Mashovets reported.
But in recent days, “the pace of advance of the advanced units and divisions of the Russian troops in these directions first dropped significantly, and then almost completely ‘reduced to zero’.”
