Health and Wellness

What type of neighbourhood do YOU live in? Search tool reveals if it’s a nappy valley or an elderly enclave…

Find out what type of neighbourhood you live in with the Daily Mail’s extraordinarily detailed search tool.

Powered by population estimate data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it reveals whether you live in a ‘nappy valley’ or elderly enclave.

Figures show that in Stamford Hill, a district within the London borough of Hackney, babies make up 3% of the population.

By comparison, the rate there is 50 times higher than in Durham City (0.06%) – the neighbourhood at the bottom of the table, which is swarming with students. 

Similarly low figures were logged in Piccadilly & Ancoats in Manchester (0.07%) and Leeds City Centre (0.12%).

When it comes to areas popular with the highest rates of over-65s, the top spot was the charming coastal village of East Preston & Rustington East in Arun at 53.3%.

This was followed by the seaside town of Sutton-on-Sea in East Lindsey (53.2%), with third place going to yet another picturesque seaside location, Barton on Sea in New Forest (52%).

Experts say nappy valleys are more likely to be home to a greater number of foreign-born residents and those aged late 20s to 30s – two demographic groups more likely to have children. 

Our map, which allows you to zoom into street level, plots the rate in all 7,265 middle super output areas (MSOA) – small pockets of the country made up of around 8,000 to 10,000 people.

As well as showing the percentage of the population that are babies and over-65, it breaks down the figures for all age-groups. 

It comes amid the looming threat of ‘underpopulation’, with fertility rates having sunk to their lowest levels since records began in the 1930s. Women in England and Wales, on average, now only have 1.44 children.

For a population to stay the same size without relying on immigration, nations must achieve a ‘replacement’ level fertility rate of 2.1.

Experts fear the freefalling trend will leave the country reliant on immigration to prop up the economy, with Britain otherwise left with too few younger people to work, pay tax and look after the elderly.

The figures on nappy valleys are based on mid-2024 population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). 

Despite being coined ‘nappy valley’ because of their pram-infested streets loved by young, middle-class families, nowhere in Wandsworth, Battersea or Clapham ranked in the top 20.  

Professor Berkay Ozcan, a demographer at the New York University Abu Dhabi, told the Daily Mail: ‘Housing in nappy valleys accommodate early-stage families which are typically smaller, denser dwellings close to jobs and amenities.

‘They also tend to offer good-quality childcare, access to well-rated primary schools, green spaces and parks, and reliable transport links.

‘Neighbourhoods that combine young, diverse populations with high residential turnover – such as many parts of inner London – also tend to record more babies simply because the demographic base for childbearing is larger.’ 

Figures show that in Stamford Hill (pictured), a district within the London borough of Hackney, babies make up 3% of the population

When analysed on a local level, Professor Ozcan argues that the number of babies in an area often acts as a ‘leading economic indicator’. 

He said: ‘Fertility is closely tied to people’s expectations about the economy and family decisions respond early to perceived opportunities and constraints. 

‘A consistently low number of babies, or the steady outflow of young families, can in time change the character and quality of a place – influencing schools, services, and the broader age balance of communities. 

‘These effects may be subtle in the short term, but over time they shape a neighbourhood’s vitality and long-term economic resilience.’

John Ermisch, emeritus professor of family demography at Oxford University, said  the variation between areas is down to the differences in the average age of women in the area, alongside ethnic composition and educational make-up.

His previous research on the topic showed there is a strong association of higher fertility in areas with larger ethnic Pakistani populations, such as Luton, Bradford and Blackburn. 

Experts believe the falling fertility trend is partly down to women focusing on their education and careers and couples waiting to have children until later in life.

It coincides with the long-running trend seen throughout the world that when a nation becomes more prosperous, fertility rates typically fall. 

When it comes to areas popular with elderly people aged 65 or over, the top spot was the charming coastal village of East Preston (pictured), West Sussex, at 53.3%.

When it comes to areas popular with elderly people aged 65 or over, the top spot was the charming coastal village of East Preston (pictured), West Sussex, at 53.3%.

And studies show that areas where more of the population holds degree level education also tend to have fewer children. 

However mothers in London are more likely to have children later on in life than elsewhere in England and Wales, due to them delaying parenthood to establish careers while navigating high housing costs.

The birth rate for women aged between 40 and 44 in the capital beats all the other regions by some margin.

But the fertility rate has still been in freefall for more a decade, apart from a blip during 2021 put down to a mini baby ‘bounce’ by couples who put their family plans on hold at the start of the Covid pandemic. 

Lifestyle factors, like the rising prevalence of obesity in many countries, is also thought to be having a negative impact on fertility. 

The UK’s fragile economy and cost-of-living crisis is also putting people off having children, some believe, evidenced by abortion rates simultaneously spiking.

Neighbourhoods in the north of England featured most heavily in the areas with the fewest babies, primarily due to their ageing populations and limited inflows of younger adults.

These areas have experienced outward migration of people in their twenties and thirties, often towards larger labour markets in cities. 

What could the government do to stop the declining birthrate? 

Some experts believe the government needs to step in to stop the declining birthrate with policies such as:

  • Offering longer paid parental leave
  • More funding for childcare for working parents
  • More funding for fertility treatments in the NHS
  • Loans or tax incentives to have children 
  • Promote flexible working 

However some experts believe there is limited evidence that policies such as these will raise the overall fertility rate.

Professor Ozcan said that as a result, even if the fertility rates of those who remain in these areas are comparable to others elsewhere, the total number of births per area is much lower due to the smaller base of people of childbearing age. 

When jobs are scarce or poorly paid, or when commuting links to major employment centres are weak, it becomes more difficult for both partners in a couple to remain in work while raising children. 

And a shortage of affordable childcare and early-years provision can make these problems worse. 

These areas also usually have relatively static housing markets dominated by older owner-occupiers, meaning there are few entry points for younger households. 

Across the whole of England and Wales in 2024, just over a third of newborn babies had mothers who were born outside the UK.

But the share exceeded 75% in parts of London considered settling spots for immigrants for generations. 

The UK is not alone in facing an uphill battle against declining birth rates, the  US is on track for a similar downward trajectory, researchers warned last year in the respected medical journal The Lancet.

Sharing their shock findings, the University of Washington team warned 97% of nations face the threat of under population by 2100. By then, half of all babies may be born in sub-Saharan Africa.

Longtime fertility campaigner Elon Musk previously joked he was ‘doing my best to help the under population crisis’, in a reference to him having reportedly had 14 children with four different women. 

He has said in the past: ‘People are going to have to revive the idea of having children as a kind of social duty, otherwise civilisation will just die.’

In May 2022 Musk claimed Japan, experiencing its own baby bust, could ‘flat-out disappear’ if its low birth rates continue to decline and that Italy ‘will have no people’ if the current trends persist.

The latest figures showing that the EU also experienced a plunge last year to an all-time low.

Double-digit percentage falls were recorded in Romania (13.9%), Poland (10.7%) and Czechia (10%).

Wealthy EU nations, including France and Germany, also saw significant drops.

So what is behind the West’s baby bust? 

Women worldwide, on average, are having fewer children now than previous generations.

The trend, down to increased access to education and contraception, more women taking up jobs and changing attitudes towards having children, is expected to see dozens of countries’ population shrink by 2100.

Dr Jennifer Sciubba, author of 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World, told MailOnline that people are choosing to have smaller families and the change ‘is permanent’.

‘So it’s wise to focus on working within this new reality rather than trying to change it,’ she said.

Sex education and contraception

A rise in education and access to contraception is one reason behind the drop off in the global fertility rate.

Education around pregnancy and contraception has increased, with sex education classes beginning in the US in the 1970s and becoming compulsory in the UK in the 1990s.

‘There is an old adage that “education is the best contraception” and I think that is relevant’ for explaining the decline in birth rates, said Professor Allan Pacey, an andrologist at the University of Sheffield and former chair of the British Fertility Society.

Elina Pradhan, a senior health specialist at the World Bank, suggests that more educated women choose to have fewer children due to concerns about earning less when taking time off before and after giving birth.

In the UK, three in 10 mothers and one in 20 fathers report having to cut back on their working hours due to childcare, according to ONS data.

They may also have more exposure to different ideas on family sizes through school and connections they make during their education, encouraging them to think more critically about the number of children they want, she said.

And more educated women may know more about prenatal care and child health and may have more access to healthcare, Ms Pradhan added.

Professor Jonathan Portes, an economist at King’s College London, said that women’s greater control over their own fertility means ‘households, and women in particular, both want fewer children and are able to do so’.

More women entering the workplace

More women are in the workplace now than they were 50 years ago — 72 vs 52 per cent — which has contributed to the global fertility rate halving over the same time period.

Professor Portes also noted that the drop-off in the birth rate may also be down to the structure of labour and housing markets, expensive childcare and gender roles making it difficult for many women to combine career aspirations with having a family.

The UK Government has ‘implemented the most anti-family policies of any Government in living memory’ by cutting services that support families, along with benefit cuts that ‘deliberately punish low-income families with children’, he added.

As more women have entered the workplace, the age they are starting a family has been pushed back. Data from the ONS shows that the most common age for a women who were born in 1949 to give birth was 22. But women born in 1975, were most likely to have children when they were 31-years-old.

In another sign that late motherhood is on the rise, half of women born in 1990, the most recent cohort to reach 30-years-old, remained childless at 30 — the highest rate recorded.

Women repeatedly point to work-related reasons for putting off having children, with surveys finding that most women want to make their way further up the career ladder before conceiving.

However, the move could be leading to women having fewer children than they planned. In the 1990s, just 6,700 cycles of IVF — a technique to help people with fertility problems to have a baby — took place in the UK annually. But this skyrocketed to more than 69,000 by 2019, suggesting more women are struggling to conceive naturally.

Declining sperm counts

Reproductive experts have also raised the alarm that biological factors, such as falling sperm counts and changes to sexual development, could ‘threaten human survival’.

Dr Shanna Swan, an epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, authored a ground-breaking 2017 study that revealed that global sperm counts have dropped by more than half over the past four decades.

She warned that ‘everywhere chemicals’, such as phthalates found in toiletries, food packaging and children’s toys, are to blame. The chemicals cause hormonal imbalance which can trigger ‘reproductive havoc’, she said.

Factors including smoking tobacco and marijuana and rising obesity rates may also play a role, Dr Swan said.

Studies have also pointed to air pollution for dropping fertility rates, suggesting it triggers inflammation which can damage egg and sperm production.

However, Professor Pacey, a sperm quality and fertility expert, said: ‘I really don’t think that any changes in sperm quality are responsible for the decline in birth rates.

‘In fact, I do not believe the current evidence that sperm quality has declined.’

He said: ‘I think a much bigger issue for falling birth rates is the fact that: (a) people are choosing to have fewer children; and (b) they are waiting until they are older to have them.’

Fears about bringing children into the world

Choosing not to have children is cited by some scientists as the best thing a person can do for the planet, compared to cutting energy use, travel and making food choices based on their carbon footprint.

Scientists at Oregon State University calculated that the each child adds about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the ‘carbon legacy’ of a woman. Each metric ton is equivalent to driving around the world’s circumference.

Experts say the data is discouraging the climate conscious from having babies, while others are opting-out of children due to fears around the world they will grow up in.

Dr Britt Wray, a human and planetary health fellow at Stanford University, said the drop-off in fertility rates was due to a ‘fear of a degraded future due to climate change’.

She was one of the authors behind a Lancet study of 10,000 volunteers, which revealed four in ten young people fear bringing children into the world because of climate concerns.

Professor David Coleman, emeritus professor of demography at Oxford University, told MailOnline that peoples’ decision not to have children is ‘understandable’ due to poor conditions, such as climate change.

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