When Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the IDF would strike Iran last week, he made no secret of his long-running ambition to wipe out Tehran’s authoritarian regime.
Addressing the Iranian people, he said: “I believe that the day of your liberation is near; and when that happens, the great friendship between our two ancient peoples will flourish once again.”
Days later, his call for regime change was echoed by President Donald Trump, who has refused to rule out the US joining the conflict. On Wednesday, Mr Trump demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran’s supreme leaderAli Khamenei and claimed that the US could assassinate him if and when it chooses to.
The Ayatollah hit back on Wednesday, warning of “serious, irreparable consequences” if the US were to directly assist Israel in its bombing campaign.
A direct strike on the supreme leader would mark a dramatic escalation, and there is no obvious successor were the regime to fall.
Here, The Independent looks at the different groups who form Iran’s fragmented opposition and who could vie for the Iranian leadership in the event of a power vacuum.
The remnants of the once-powerful leftist militant group which bombed the Shah’s government and US targets in the 1970s still wield a degree of influence in Iran, and now advocate for the overthrow of the Iranian government.
Known by its Persian name, the Mujahideen-e Khalq Organisation (MEK or MKO), the group fell out with the other factions alongside which it deposed the Iranian Shah and replaced the Imperial State of Iran with the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.
But the Mujahideen soon developed large numbers of enemies in Iran after siding with Iraq during the war of 1980-88.
Massoud Rajavi, its former leader, remains in exile and has not been seen for more than 20 years. His wife, Maryam Rajavi, is now in control, but the group has shown little evidence of activity within Iran’s border for years.
Instead, the group is the driving force behind the National Council of Resistance of Iran, led by Ms Rajavi, which has an active presence in many Western countries.
The Mujahideen has been criticised by rights groups for what they describe as cult-like behaviour and the abuse of its followers. but the group denies these allegations.
When revolution swept through Iran in 1979, transforming the country into an Islamic Republic, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi – Iran’s last Shah – fled the country. He died just a year later in Egypt in 1980.
Reza Pahlavi, his son, was heir to the Iranian throne at the time of the revolution. He now lives in the US, from where he calls for regime change through non-violent means and a referendum on a new government.
