Why Iran’s Kharg Island could decide the fate of the Strait of Hormuz and how a US invasion could ignite a bigger gulf war

Tehran has commenced the high-stakes fortification of Kharg Island, deploying advanced air defenses and layering coastal minefields in direct response to intelligence suggesting a potential United States amphibious assault. Sources familiar with US intelligence have confirmed to CNN, as reported by TOI, that Iranian forces are positioning anti-armour and anti-personnel traps along the shorelines of the northeast Persian Gulf hub to obstruct rapid-response Marine Expeditionary Units.

This military buildup follows a series of joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28 and subsequent CENTCOM operations on March 13 that targeted missile bunkers but bypassed oil infrastructure. As the Trump administration evaluates the strategic necessity of seizing the island to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, military experts caution that the island’s new MANPADS and tiered defenses have significantly raised the risk of high American casualties in any ground-based maneuver.

Why is Kharg Island important to Iran’s economy?

Kharg Island serves as the primary economic lifeline for the Islamic Republic, handling approximately 90% of the country’s crude oil exports. Although the island is only about a third the size of Manhattan, its proximity to critical oil facilities makes it the most sensitive target in the northern Persian Gulf. US officials view the potential seizure of this hub as a primary lever to pressure Tehran into ending the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On March 13, CENTCOM reported hitting 90 targets on the island, including mine storage and bunkers, though President Trump noted that oil infrastructure was deliberately spared “for reasons of decency”.

What is the US military presence currently facing Iran?

The United States has recently deployed two Marine Expeditionary Units to the Middle East, specialized in rapid-response raids and amphibious assaults from Navy warships. These units, comprising several thousand Marines, aircraft, and landing craft, are the primary forces capable of executing a landing on Kharg. Additionally, approximately 1,000 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are expected to arrive in the region in the coming days to bolster the US posture. However, military experts told CNN that any attempt to secure the island would require a “substantial landing force” and faces “significant risks” due to Iran’s newly deployed shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles.

Why is a ground war not what US allies or experts want?

Washington’s Gulf allies have privately communicated their opposition to a ground occupation of Kharg Island to the Trump administration. These nations express concern that a prolonged conflict and occupation would provoke Iranian retaliation against critical infrastructure across the broader Gulf region. Military analysts , quoted by TOI, have echoed these concerns, noting that the layered defenses and traps currently being set by Tehran could result in an unacceptably high number of American casualties. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reinforced this on X, stating that if enemies “step out of line,” all vital infrastructure of regional countries supporting the US will become targets of “relentless attacks”.

What is the status of the five-day ceasefire claim?

On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced a five-day “ceasefire,” asserting that negotiators from Washington and Tehran were engaged in active talks to terminate the war. This claim was subsequently and explicitly rejected by Iran. Despite the talk of a diplomatic pause, Ghalibaf confirmed that Iran’s armed forces remain under “full surveillance” of all US movements and troop deployments in the region. The rejection of the ceasefire coincides with reports of Iran carrying out strikes in Gulf countries that host American military bases as the conflict sparked on February 28 continues to evolve.

(With TOI inputs)