Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman promised to usher in a new era of innovation, prosperity and modernity when he became the kingdom’s de facto ruler a decade ago.
With his ambitious ”Vision 2030“ project, he hoped Saudi Arabia would soon rival Dubai as the regional business hub in the Middle East, attracting Western talent and enabling his influence to spread beyond the Kingdom’s borders.
But with just four years before his self-imposed deadline, those plans have been suddenly plunged into uncertainty. Earlier this week, Saudi air defences downed several Iranian drones and cruise missiles, while a strike on the Ras Tanura oil refinery temporarily halted operations.
In just a few days, the illusion of safety in the Gulf appeared to be shattered.
Did war ruin the Gulf’s reputation for safety?
Many countries deemed safe havens in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have been hit by Iran in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes launched a week ago, which killed Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Numbeo’s ranking of the UAE as the safest country in the world for the second year in a row in 2026 now seems absurd as images pour in of stranded tourists and residents in Dubai sheltering from missile fire emerged earlier this week.
Even as Gulf countries rushed to assure citizens they were safe, experts say the entire region is facing severe reputational damage due to the insecurity created by the war.
Dania Thafer, executive director of Gulf International Forum, told The Independent that the “normalisation of volatility” was a risk for Saudi Arabia as it seeks economic expansion.
“Mohammed bin Salman’s transformation agenda is not predicated on absolute security – it rests on the credibility of long-term predictability,” she said.
“Vision 2030 assumes that global investors, multinational firms, and expatriate talent will see Saudi Arabia as a stable environment for capital, innovation, and lifestyle. That assumption becomes harder to sustain if the Gulf is no longer viewed as the oasis of Middle East stability but as an active frontline.”
Any prolonged instability in the region would complicate the “transformation narrative” in the Gulf and “weaken the safe hub for business model that both Dubai cultivated and Saudi Arabia now seeks to emulate”, she added.
The Kingdom is facing a struggle to attract talent
A key element of Prince Mohammed’s plan was his megaproject Neom, the most ambitious vision for a city in human history.
