Americans can now gamble on the future of the housing market itself — betting real money on whether home prices in cities like Miami, Los Angeles and New York will rise or fall in the coming weeks.
Prediction platform Polymarket has quietly launched a new set of housing bets that allow users to wager on median home values.
The new markets, created in partnership with housing data firm Parcl, are based on a daily home price index rather than completed sales, letting traders speculate on price moves months before they show up in traditional housing data.
For homeowners, the idea is controversial but simple: a family worried about falling prices could bet on a downturn and potentially recoup some of the paper losses on their biggest asset if the market slides.
For renters and first–time buyers locked out by high prices, it offers something new — a way to profit from housing moves without ever owning a home.
Polymarket rose to prominence by allowing users to bet on US elections and major political events.
Launched in 2020, the app saw massive growth during the 2024 presidential race, when around $3.6 billion was used to bet on election outcomes.
With Monday’s launch of the housing–focused prediction markets, Americans will be able to bet on what they predict median home values will be in the US and several major metro areas.
Prediction platform Polymarket has quietly launched a new set of housing bets that allow users to wager on median home values
With Monday’s launch of the housing–focused prediction markets, Americans will be able to bet on what they predict median home values will be in the US and several major metro areas, including Los Angeles (pictured)
Bets initially cover five major cities — New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco and Austin — as well as the US housing market as a whole.
Users can bet on where prices will stand at the start of every month, beginning on February 1.
Bets are placed by buying shares in an outcome. If the prediction is correct, each share pays out $1. If it is wrong, it pays nothing.
The average US home price today (January 12) stands at $419,780, and traders can bet across a range of price bands — including below $410,000, between $410,000 and $412,000, $412,000 and $414,000, $414,000 and $416,000, $416,000 and $418,000, or above $418,000.
At the time of writing, an extreme bet that US home prices will fall below $410,000 by February 1 was trading at just 10 cents — meaning the market believes there is only a 10 per cent chance of such a sharp drop. A $100 bet at that price would buy 1,000 shares and pay out $1,000 if correct, delivering a $900 profit.
By contrast, a more realistic bet that prices will be above $418,000 was trading at 55 cents. A $100 stake would buy around 180 shares and pay out about $180 if correct — delivering a profit of roughly $80.
While Polymarket’s move into home prices carries risks for careless participants, it could provide valuable insights and new opportunities for cautious traders and market watchers.
‘This is really a novel opportunity for market participants to wager directly on home prices without having to actually buy or sell a property,’ said Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner.
Bets initially cover five major cities – New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco (pictured) and Austin – as well as the US housing market as a whole
Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner
‘Beyond speculating or gambling, homeowners and prospective homebuyers could utilize these markets to hedge against their interests in the market,’ he adds.
For instance, homeowners preparing to sell soon could wager on the ‘under’ in home price indices, effectively betting on declining prices to help offset potential losses if the market softens.
Conversely, future homebuyers could bet on the ‘over,’ potentially generating cash that helps counter rising prices in a strengthening market.
More broadly, these housing–focused markets could offer useful signals to homebuyers, sellers, and economists about where home values may be headed.
‘If traded heavily enough by market participants and experts, a prediction market for home prices could provide valuable signals on where home prices are going,’ Berner said.
‘An efficient market is the best way to set prices and to quantify the wisdom of the crowd, so if this tool gained enough traction it could be an effective prediction tool.’
Polymarket is not yet widely available to Americans and is rolling out access through a wait list.
Competing platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood are broadly accessible in the US Polymarket also has a data partnership with Dow Jones, publisher of the Wall Street Journal.
