Airspace violations and drone incursions: How Putin is provoking Ukraine’s European allies over land, air and sea
Europe’s NATO allies have been shaken by Russian provocations on the bloc’s eastern frontier in recent months, reporting a string of drone incursions and scrambling jets to shadow aircraft flying over the Baltic.
Concern has mounted since September, when nearly two dozen drones crossed over into Poland amid a large-scale Russian drone attack on Ukraine. Days later, three Russian military jets violated Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes.
Subsequent activity near the border has forced European countries to close airports and borders, and to reconsider how equipped they are to deal with foreign intrusions.
Analysts say that Russia is deliberately provoking NATO to see how it reacts, gathering information that might be useful when it decides the time is right to make a move against an alliance member.
Poland said on 30 October that its fighter jets had been scrambled to intercept a Russian reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea in the second such incident in a week.
Two days earlier, Polish jets intercepted a Russian aircraft flying in international airspace over the Baltic without a filed flight plan and with its transponder turned off.
Separately, Polish airports in Radom and Lublin reopened on Thursday after being forced shut by military aviation activity. Russian attacks on facilities in bordering Ukraine saw Polish and allied planes scrambled.
Lithuania said on 29 October it would continue to close border crossings into Belarus until November in response to airspace disruptions by smugglers’ balloons.
The balloons, carrying cartons of cigarettes, forced airports in Lithuania to close several times in October. The EU said the balloons “occur in the context of a broader targeted hybrid campaign”.
Belarus’ president called the borders a “crazy scam” and accused the West of fighting a hybrid war against Belarus and Russia.
Denmark accused Russian warships of repeatedly sailing on collision courses with Danish naval vessels and disrupting navigation systems in its straits connecting the Baltic to the North Sea at the start of October.
Such incidents risk unintended escalation, the defence intelligence ministry said on 3 October. The ministry said that Danish vessels and helicopters had been targeted by tracking radars and physically pointed at with weapons.
Denmark’s armed forces reported at the end of September that unidentified drones had been observed near military installations.
On 24 September, airports in Aalborg and Billund had to close briefly, reporting drone activity. On 22 September, Copenhagen airport also had to close. Denmark’s prime minister said that Russian involvement could not be ruled out. The Kremlin called the allegations “unfounded”.
