‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ To Set The World Ablaze With $340M-$380M Box Office Opening – Preview

Here it is the final finale pretty much of the box office year with 20th Century Studios’ James Cameron threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash set to be the king of the world with a $340M to $380M worldwide take, which would be behind the global start of 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water in like-for-likes with $444M.

The overseas launch estimate is in the $250M-$275M range. Avatar: The Way of Water debuted to $310M in like-for-like markets at today’s rates.

Don’t fret: Realize that Way of Water had nine days of runtime before Christmas, while Fire and Ash has five, meaning audiences are bound to wait out for the best seats and screens to see this 3 hour and 17 minute sci-fi epic. Also the lower global opening compared to Way of Water, stems from the 13 years of distance between the original film and the sequel.

Currently, domestic presales are pacing 30% behind that of Avatar: Way of Water which opened to $134.1M to the 2009 original’s $77M, so don’t be shocked if Fire and Ash opens to $90M+. In addition, there’s more counterprogramming competition, at least in North America, than there was during Way of Water‘s go-round, and all of it is expected to be buoyant between Angel Studios’ animated faith-based film David ($20M-$25M), Lionsgate’s Housemaid ($20M+) and Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants ($15M-$20M). As always with any Avatar movie at the end of the year, it’s about the end game, not necessarily the first weekend. Heck, that’s the situation with all these films: it’s all about the crazy 6x-8x year-end multiple. Way of Water arrived in a Christmas marketplace after Spider-Man: No Way Home made box office history a year prior with the second biggest domestic opening of all-time at $260M and third highest global at $600.5M. Tracking made the mistake of comping Way of Water to a Marvel movie (which always has the rush-out, FOMO factor), hence forecasts on that second Cameron film were loft at $180M+; in the end the sequel did fantastic with a 5.1x stateside ($688.5M) and $2.34 billion global take, the third highest grossing movie of all-time.

In the U.S., Fire and Ash is booked at 3,800 theaters with 430 Imax 3D auditoriums; 1,050 premium large format screens (approx. 80% 3D and including 175 Dolby screens), 380 D-Box/4D motion auditoriums and 120 ScreenX locations. Previews begin at 2PM. Currently, Fire and Ash‘s critical score is at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes, the lowest in the trilogy next to Avatar (81%) and Avatar: Way of Water (76%).

Fire and Ash begins overseas rollout today, including majors France, Germany, Italy and Korea. On Thursday, Australia, Brazil and Mexico join, among others. Friday brings on China, UK, Japan, Spain, India and more. It total, the threequel will be playing in all international box office markets this weekend, save Hong Kong which is now going on Jan. 8.

There are 17 days of holiday breaks in a lot of international countries, and even more in some, so look for a slow bun on the threequel.

Among the top offshore starts for Fire and Ash this debut session, it’s likely to be a mix of China, Germany, France, Korea, UK, Mexico and India; that is, if history repeats.

In China, where the previous two Avatar movies excelled, Fire and Ash is leading presales through Sunday and into the beginning of next week. Through Sunday, however, they are far lower than Way of Watercurrently sitting at about 53.5M RMB ($7.6M). Limited sneaks begin on Wednesday in the Cinity format, with PLFs starting sneaks on Thursday. Friday goes all-in.

Cameron is beloved in China where the first Avatar did over $200M in 2010 — before the market opened up and screens grew at a breakneck pace. Across Avatar’s three local releases its gross rises to $262M. Avatar: The Way of Water then finaled at $247M (again, at historical rates) after being released amid China ceasing its zero-Covid policy in 2022 and concerns from the public about venturing out. The Way of Water opened to $56.4M in China, with the multiple along the lines of how these movies go — playing out incredibly well.

As for global promos, Cameron attended a premiere in Sanya, China in early December with star-studded carpets also being held in Paris, Milan, Madrid, Tokyo, London, Wellington, Mexico City and Los Angeles.

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Don’t deny the success of David — at least this weekend. The Angel Studios movie, booked at 3,100 theaters has $14M in presales already, journeying toward a $20M-$25Mahead of Paramount’s fourth SpongeBob feature. While that figure is fueled by Angel Studios subscriptions and fanship ticket sales, the notion from distribution sources is that SpongeBob will have the last laugh, and leg out by the end of the holiday stretch which typically caps off with MLK weekend in mid-January. Previews start at 12noon Thursday for the Phil Cunningham and Brent Dawes directed movie which follows David’s path from humble shepherd to anointed king, down to his clash with Goliath.

And there could be a big flux of women to multiplexes as Lionsgate’s Paul Feig directed thriller Housemaid starring Amanda Seyfried, Sydney Sweeney and Brandon Sklenar is bound for a $20M+ opening at 3,000 theaters. Even if the movie comes in under in the teens, there’s hope that this movie based on the first novel in the Freida McFadden trilogy will leg out to bigger numbers ala Sweeney’s Anyone But You which opened to $6M in the pre-Christmas frame and did a crazy 14.7x multiple for a final $88.3M domestic. Rotten Tomatoes critical score is at 78% fresh off 55 reviews. Pic was made for net mid-$30M. Film follows a wealthy woman (Seyfried), married to a hunky guy who works in tech (Sklenar), who hires a young woman living on the fringe as her live-in housemaid. Ya gotta see the movie to find out what happens. Previews happen at 2PM Thursday.

SpongeBob is in play at 3,500 theaters, with previews Thursday at 4PM. Today in North America, there’s an early access 3D event in more than 1,000 sites. Fans will get to see the film first, two days early at 5pm local time presented in 3D and RealD 3D at participating theatres across the country.  Ticketholders will also get their hands on a bunch of special bonus content, i.e. limited-edition gifts including a laptop/tablet sticker pack and an exclusive collector’s print – while supplies last.