Blow after blow to the power of Iran and its proxy militias set the stage for US-Israel attacks
As Israel unleashed a sweeping military response to the brutal Oct. 7, 2023, assault by Hamas, it aimed punch after punch at the power of Iran, the militant group’s longtime sponsor, and its other proxies and allies in the region.
The result has been a rapid and systematic degradation of Iran’s clout across the Middle East over the past 2½ years, a seismic change that led directly to this weekend’s devastating attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel.
“Certainly the Oct. 7 events were a turning point in this long conflict between Iran and Israel,” said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an expert on Iranian politics at the Missouri University of Science and Technology. “I think it provided Israel with the argument or justification to deliver a strong blow.”
The most devastating hit so far came this weekend when President Donald Trump and Israeli leaders launched a wave of attacks on Iran, killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and inflicting widespread destruction. But the war, while still in its early stages, is part of a much longer continuum of events that have severely weakened Iran, Hezbollah and other proxy militias, and upended political balance in the region.
“It’s a very bloody, a very violent but transformative moment that the Middle East is going through,” said Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow focused on the Middle East at Chatham House, a British think tank. “We don’t know where this will end up.”
The war in Gaza was the wellspring
The damage to Iran’s power radiated from the war in Gaza, where Israeli forces followed Hamas after militants killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages during the Oct. 7 attacks. Israel has since killed more than 72,000 Palestinians in Gaza, nearly half of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry, which is under Gaza’s Hamas government and which does not distinguish between militants and civilians.
The conflict quickly expanded, though, to include other groups in the Iran-sponsored Axis of Resistance.
In Lebanon, the powerful militant group Hezbollah had long been considered Iran’s first line of defense in case of a war with Israel. It was believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the group’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah once boasted of having 100,000 fighters.
After Oct. 7, the group launched rockets across the border to Israel, seeking to aid its ally Hamas. That drew Israeli airstrikes and shelling and the exchanges escalated into full-scale war in the fall of 2024.
Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other top leaders and destroying much of the militant group’s arsenal, before a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire nominally halted that conflict last November. Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and to carry out near-daily airstrikes.
Hezbollah was further weakened when rebels overthrew the regime of key ally Syrian President Bashar Assad, cutting off a major supply route for Iranian weapons.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels, also sponsored by Iran, joined the expanding conflict, firing rockets at vessels in the Red Sea and targeting Israel. U.S. warships and the Israeli military returned fire.
Israel left the status quo behind
