Canadians will decide on Monday whether to extend the Liberal Party’s decade in power or instead give control to the Conservatives. They will pick either prime minister Mark Carney or opposition leader Pierre Poilievre to lead the way forward, but the election is also a referendum of sorts on someone who isn’t even Canadian: Donald Trump.
Until the American president won a second term and began threatening Canada’s economy and sovereignty, even suggesting the country should become the 51st state of the US, the Liberals looked headed for defeat.
Canadians go to the polls as the country grapples with the aftermath of a fatal car ramming in Vancouver on Saturday.
The tragedy on the eve of the election prompted the suspension of campaigning for several hours.
Police ruled out terrorism and said the suspect was a local man with a history of mental health issues.
Mr Trump’s truculence has infuriated many Canadians, leading many to cancel US vacations and refuse to buy American goods.
It possibly even prompted many of them to vote early – a record 7.3 million Canadians cast their ballots before election day.
Mr Trump also put Mr Poilievre and the Conservative Party on the backfoot after they appeared headed for an easy victory only months ago.
“The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Mr Carney said recently, laying out what he saw as the stakes for the election. “Those aren’t just words. That’s what’s at risk.”
Mr Poilievre, a populist firebrand who campaigned with Trump-like bravado, had hoped to make the election a referendum on former prime minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined towards the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged.
But then Mr Trump became the dominant issue, and Mr Poilievre’s similarities to the bombastic president could cost him.
“He appeals to the same sense of grievance,” Canadian historian Robert Bothwell said of the Conservative leader. “It’s like Trump standing there saying ‘I am your retribution.’”
Foreign policy hasn’t dominated a Canadian election this much since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the US was the prevailing issue.
Whichever candidate emerges as prime minister will face a litany of challenges.
Canada has been dealing with a cost of living crisis for some time. And more than 75 percent of its exports go to the US, so Mr Trump’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs and his desire to get the North American automakers to move Canada’s production south could severely damage the country’s economy.
Both Mr Carney and Mr Poilievre said that if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations on a free trade deal between Canada and the US in a bid to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.
Mr Carney, in particular, has notable experience navigating economic crises, having done so when running Canada’s central bank and later after becoming the first non-UK citizen to run the Bank of England.
Mr Trump dialed back his talk of Canada becoming the 51st state during the campaign until last week, when he said Canada “would cease to exist as a country” if the US stopped buying its goods.
He also said he was not just trolling Canada by saying it should become a US state.
“The Liberals ought to pay him,” Mr Bothwell said. “Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.”
In response to the threats to Canadian sovereignty, Mr Carney pleaded with voters to deliver him a strong mandate to deal with Mr Trump.
“President Trump has some obsessive ideas, and that is one,” Mr Carney said of his annexation threat. “It’s not a joke. It’s his very strong desire to make this happen. It’s one of the reasons why this crisis is so serious.”
