Those Tests in South America have certainly given the Wallabies some rich intelligence ahead of the Test in London, but Borthwick’s decision to back the same players in search of a faster November start has also created a window of opportunity for the Wallabies.
As good a young prop as Baxter is – and he’s only 23 – England lose something by not starting Genge (and Stuart likewise). If Taniela Tupou wants to be known as a world-class prop, this is the time to deliver.
The Wallabies have an advantage out of the blocks in the back row. Rob Valetini’s recent form has been a bit scratchy, but he has a chance to impose himself at Twickenham and Ford’s defensive frailties make him the obvious target for the Wallabies’ heavier ball runners.
The flipside is that England’s strong bench will, in theory, make sure they come home with the wind at their backs. Flankers Tom Curry and Henry Pollock are potential game changers, while back-up No.10 Fin Smith is a class act who can defend as well as he can attack.
But the Wallabies have the ability to start the Test well and if they are capable of putting some scoreboard pressure on England they can take the Twickenham factor out of the Test – or even turn it against their hosts.
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The Wallabies’ selection omission that did come as a surprise was the omission of Ben Donaldson. The Western Force playmaker has seemingly plunged well down the pecking order but is still a player I believe can offer value at the highest level.
Carlo Tizzano is similarly unlucky after proving emphatically this year that he is Test quality, but he might have paid an indirect price for the injury to Tate McDermott.
The Reds’ halfback absence has arguably reduced the Wallabies bench flexibility and capacity to go with a 6-2 split, with McDermott showing against the Lions that he is a legitimate option to cover the wing position if needed.
For all the talk of missing Len Ikitau, Will Skelton, Tom Hooper and James O’Connor – and my view is that if you organise a Test outside the World Rugby release window you know what you’re signing up for – it is the combined unavailability of Nic White (retired) and McDermott (injured) that the Wallabies are taking a bit of time to adjust to.
It’s a big Test for Jake Gordon. It would be great to see him attacking around the fringes like he did in the second Test against the Lions. If the Wallabies can create those sorts of opportunities for the halfback and get off to a good start, it’ll be Borthwick’s selections that feel the pressure.
