Every time an Australian team has won a Super Rugby title, they finished minor premiers. And to get enough points to do that, you must start by banking maximum points in home games, and then pick up a handful of wins on the road too, particularly in derbies.
The second part is hard, so the first part is non-negotiable. In 2014, NSW won all their home games and in 2011, the Reds only dropped one. Likewise the Brumbies in 2004 and 2001.
This year, however, the Brumbies lost three of eight games at home, with a win rate of 62.5 per cent. It was their lowest win rate since 2018 (50 per cent).
Force players celebrate their win over the Brumbies in Canberra in round two.Credit: Getty Images
Along with the Force, they dropped home games to the Canes and the Crusaders. Those losses negated good points earned on the road against the Blues, Reds, Moana and the Drua, and the Brumbies ended up finishing third; two wins behind the Chiefs in first, and five points behind the Crusaders in second.
Instead of finishing top two and playing a home semi-final, the Brumbies had to get on a plane (and yes, Super Rugby Pacific’s contentious rules had a say in that too). But had they finished second and kept winning, the Brumbies would be this weekend hosting the final instead of the Crusaders, courtesy of the Blues beating the top-seed Chiefs in the qualifying finals.
It turned out this could have been the year the Brumbies took the final step. They had the talent. But they were a home win, and change, short on the ladder.
Over the years, the seasons of fallen contenders have tended to swing on one or two kick-yourself results. The Brumbies’ loss to the Force will go down in that bracket.
Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham conceded post-game the Chiefs were the stronger side in Hamilton, and he and his staff will review the semi-final loss to work on weak points, and be better equipped to handle those tough final steps next year. It was the same approach used last summer, and into this season.
The question whether the Brumbies can be there again next year is debatable, given they’ll be without Noah Lolesio, Len Ikitau, Tom Hooper and possibly Rob Valetini.
But presuming the premiership window does stay open, their best – and maybe only – path to success is to flat-out avoid playing in the same game.
Brodie McAlister of the Chiefs looks on as a scrum is formed.Credit: Getty Images
The Brumbies have lost four straight semi-finals in New Zealand. No Australian side has ever won in 21 play-off games in New Zealand. It’s an unusual stat, but it’s not as shameful as it sounds.
Winning a play-off in New Zealand is bloody hard to do. Five of those play-off losses came in Australia’s golden era, when great teams and legendary names couldn’t even get it done.
No South African side ever won a Super Rugby play-off in New Zealand either, from 15 attempts. Even all-powerhouse Kiwi teams have only won 10 from 32 play-offs offshore.
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Winning a competition is not figuring out how to defy huge odds and win a semi-final in the wet of Waikato. It’s how to play that semi-final in the cold of Canberra, instead.
The key to that is to never have an off night at home, or as few as humanly possible.
Easier said than done, sure. But no less true. You can’t win a competition when fans are still in T-shirts. But as history keeps showing us, you can go a long way to losing one.
